FA Cup Third Round - Back The Top 30 At Home

An effective strategy is to back all the top 30 teams, i.e. those in the Premiership and top 10 of the Championship, against sides from outside the top 30. This obvious approach of backing the stronger teams in the country against weaker opponents has produced a win rate in excess of 70%. This equates to odds of approximately 2/5 and there is added value in this strategy if that average is exceeded by the coupon odds on all the top 30 teams with a home tie against opposition from outside the top 30. In the Cup, many of the big teams are offered at much shorter odds than 2/5, so this is a high staking strategy which will appeal to the "big hitters" more than the average punter, but it is a strategy that works. In the 2003/04 season, the top 30 sides had a total of 15 home matches against teams from outside the top 30 during the FA Cup. They were as follows: Third Round Millwall @ 1.91 vs Walsall. Result: 2-1 Portsmouth @ 1.32 vs Blackpool. Result: 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur @ 1.51 vs Crystal Palace. Result: 3-0 Sunderland @ 1.42 vs Hartlepool. Result: 1-0 Middlesbrough @ 1.23 vs Notts County. Result: 2-0 Ipswich @ 1.56 vs Derby County. Result: 3-0 Fulham @ 1.15 vs Cheltenham. Result: 2-1 Replays: Bolton @ 1.36 vs Tranmere. Result: 1-2 AET Wolves @ 1.23 vs Kidderminster. Result: 2-0 Chelsea @ 1.15 vs Watford. Result: 4-0 Fourth Round Portsmouth @ 1.23 vs Scunthorpe. Result: 2-1 Birmingham @ 1.33 vs Milton Keynes. Result: 1-0 Fifth Round Millwall @ 1.79 vs Burnley. Result: 1-0 Sheffield Utd @ 1.41 vs Colchester. Result: 1-0 Quarter Final Millwall @ 1.56 vs Tranmere. Result: 0-0 As you can see, 13 of the 15 matches produced wins for the higher positioned teams with two matches ending as a draw after 90 minutes. Using the above odds as a guide and