Wrong Team Favored This Weekend
This coming weekend, there is a glaring mistake. In general,
the guys who set the lines are accurate. Lines usually only move
a point or so all week long. This week, the guys set the
Cincinnati Bengals as 1 point favorites against the Pittsburgh
Steelers. Bets have poured in and now, the Steelers are favored
by 3.
The bookied had it right, and now, a rare occurrence has
occurred. The wrong team is favored and favored significantly.
Cincinnati +3 is a gift and all experienced sharp bettors will
grab Cinci +3 -110 or Cinci +3.5 -130 (Slightly better)
Both teams are 11-5. A quick look at the season stats show that
Cinci is a slightly better passing team and Pittsburgh is a
slightly better rushing team. Both have created and allowed
similar number of yards. In their two games this season, the
Steelers and the Bengals each won one.
But here are the intangibles:
1. Pittsburgh won their right into the playoffs on the last
Sunday of the season. Pittsburgh had to play all their starters
right up until the last minute of the last game. Cincinnati has
had nothing to play for, for the past two weeks. Cinci's
starters have been sitting on the bench resting and recovering
from any minor injuries.
2. Pittsburgh enters the game with an injured starting
quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger has a bad thumb and can not
throw the ball more than 40 yards. This significantly hinders
the offense.
3. The game is in Cincinnati. In general home playoff dogs cover
well over 60% of the time, but a home playoff game in Cincinnati
is like snow in Miami. The fans in Cincinnati will be bonkers
for this game.
Add it all up and Cinci -3 is a fair line in my line. Grab the
Bengals and cash the ticket.
Good luck.
Sean is a sports commentator for http://www.increasedodds.com
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