Historical and Recent Past Period Drought Data is very valuable to predicting future trends and cycles. By doing this we can prepare for crisis by building adequate water resources and monitoring our fresh water supplies. It is important to understand all the regional dynamics in order to make good non-linear decisions to insure our civilization has what it needs. This data is from 2002.
If you think the US is having problems look at Mexico although they are getting some good and needed rain this week in the interior of the country, it has been quite a problem. This Hurricane season has been lighter than anytime in the last 100 years and is not delivering the rain it could. As the El Nino cuts of the amount of space that the hurricanes can operate in, it may create a few larger systems where tropical depressions combine. The earth's supply of freshwater for use by humans and natural ecosystems seems to be shrinking by the year. One-third of the world's population is living in "water stressed" regions in the World. As human population continues to grow, so does the demand for more water. It is estimated that by the year 2025 nearly one-half of the population will be living in "water stressed" regions or countries.
The NASA Satellite which sends information on river basins around the world using sophisticated computer models and geographical information systems is locating the areas that are most stressed. Among the most stressed are China's Yellow River basin, Africa's Zambeze River basin, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya River basins leading to Russia's Aral Sea and the Colorado River basin. These are amongst the first serious problems. This research is also being used by the World Water Commission; a government and privately funded organization; goal to seek global solutions to water problems. They of course are using this data to change policy and over exaggerate much of the problems, however at the current rates we will see significant and unfixable problems in these regions without control of the actual weather. We must look towards using the technology we have to control the weather and make it rain every Monday and Thursday night. Water managers are recognizing that our nations water supply must be treated cautiously. With a growing population, erratic dry spells, and widespread pollution of our aquatic environment, water consumption must be watched. The big problem is that people still see water as basically free and totally unlimited, which if you look at the Earth it would appear that way judging by the size of the oceans.
Things are being done to reserve our supply, in the US we certainly take for granted the fresh water supply. Some communities are using surplus water and gray water to replenish underground reservoirs like in Tucson AZ, where water naturally accumulates but is at lower than normal levels. Scientists are looking at new technologies to maximize such stores. Other ideas range from setting up commercial markets for water rights to forming huge snow piles. Although these ideas are great locally, and it provides local awareness it will do little good. And there are a couple of Canadian companies that use small ships to go and capture floating icebergs for fresh water. California water planners face a problem they never thought they'd encounter: global warming is hitting the High Sierra snow pack. And just how the planners cope with it could affect every city-dweller, every farmer and every water-using industry in the state for years to come and every car wash. Scientists are in broad agreement that the world's climate is steadily warming and even President Bush and his staff have conceded that we should be looking at these issues with more scrutiny-- whether due to "greenhouse gas" emissions from industry and automobilesor to natural variability.
http://www.sepp.org/weekwas/2000/Nov4.htm
There is evidence that it is already altering the annual ebb and flow of the California state's water supplies, of course realizing that liars figure and figures lie. It's a matter of "more rain, less snow," and this is El Nino which will fill up CA reservoirs when they do not need the water and the snow pack that comes and fills things up in the Spring will not come, then La Nina comes and we have another drought in CA, it is not going to help us. This happened in 1984 too. California's water supply largely depends on the winter snow pack in the high mountains that must feed the state's lowlands the rest of the year. A major change is already evident in the decreasing depths of the mountain snows that pile up each winter, in the un-seasonal winter rainfalls that drench the mountains instead of snow, and in the speed of the snowmelt during spring. Total precipitation over California hasn't changed significantly on average over the years, but seasonal variations between rain and snow show that a significant warming trend is under way. But the population increase has, for instance look at the LA suburbs, Sacramento, Central Valley of Silicon Valley Refugees, San Diego and San Gabriel Valley, lots of lawns to water and mow. Even in the desert cities more homes, golf courses and lawns, with the increasing middle class, which is not paying attention to where stuff like water really comes from. The annual surveys of mountain snow depths and water levels of California's major rivers show that before the 1960s runoff in the late spring and early summer amounted to a good 40 percent of the total runoff each year.
Since the mid-1970s in LA, San Diego, Sacramento and the Bay Area, runoff during the late spring and early summer has dropped to barely 30 percent of the annual total, he said. Tracking California's changing climate record for many years. We are finding data that adds to powerful evidence that the warming trend is real. However there maybe other explanations as well. Some which may be unbelievable. The problem of managing the state's water resources more rationally in view of the changing climate is urgent now. We need detailed studies to decide what to do. Studies are a lot cheaper than floods. However I doubt anyone can disagree with the thought of weather control research to solve the water problem for people. Officials of the California Department of Water Resources are starting to look at the effects of climate change as they develop the 2003 California Water Plan that state law requires the department to produce every five years. As I traveled last month from Reno NV to CA Sacramento are I looked at the Sierra summit and there's no snow pack at all up there, while the major reservoirs downstream are full, places like Folsom Lake, the warming trend problem is just beginning, but it's certainly focusing the water authorities attention.
The warming trend poses at least three increasing dangers: -- Severe lowland flooding as rains in the winter replace mountain snowfalls; -- Rising sea levels that reach into the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and threaten century-old levees that must protect the rich croplands; -- The intrusion of salt into Delta waterways that disturbs both fisheries and the natural delta ecology on which farmlands depend. The Department of Water Resources hedges against these changes by developing a two-year state water plan. I have read this and find it full of farm subsidies and bad data and guess by experts similar to the crisis management team brought in for Y2K, which never happened, although these are real, right now issues we need to look at the past for answers more than trying to predict the new future trends. The last such document in 1998 included forecasts for the state's water supply and demand over the coming 20 years, and provided recommendations for dam building, flood control, water management and conservation measures. Now, the department of water planning is gearing up to draft the plan for 2003. The City of Los Angeles water planning dept and other and other experts will offer the department's 60-member advisory committee the latest evidence that the warming problem could grow steadily worse.
The Water Department has a 60-member advisory committee made up of "stakeholders" -- the people most affected by water policies like agricultural water districts, urban water departments, food processing industries and public utilities. All provide input for the state's water planners. The committee meets every two months or so for the next two years until the final plan is released.
http://www.sepp.org/weekwas/2000/Nov4.htm
http://wwwdwr.water.ca.gov/
http://wwwdwr.water.ca.gov/dir-general_informationR2/OWE_Contact_Info_R2.html
http://wwwowe.water.ca.gov/default.html
The future will be all about sustainability and we must watch that this term is not misused in the future for political gain or Liberal Political gain, which will upset the balance. Wash guys realize the need to understand the water supply and where and why it is needed. We have been through droughts in the past and will in the future. Some people ask where did the Indians go who inhabited they villages and cities and temple and structures of the past? I believe they went in search of greener pastures and water. The problem of tomorrow is distribution flow. In a future project research we will study how man, by moving around large amounts of water can cause the Earth to wobble in it