Super Bowl Props:Do Your Homework
Oddsmaker's have had plenty of time to carefully scrutinize the
last game of the football season, therefore the side and total
are likely to be good numbers. You rarely see much line movement
on Super Bowls. However, proposition bets offer bettors an
excellent opportunity to find good bets and soft numbers. But
you can't do guesswork, you have to do some homework.
Let's go through a prop and do some research on it. For
instance, there's a line offered on the Steelers/Seahawks Super
Bowl this weekend that reads: What half will the most points be
scored in? The second half opened +110. Is this a good number?
Just thinking about what might happen, it seems to reason that
both coaches, Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher, are primarily ball
control gurus. They look to establish their running games and
control the clock. Perhaps the first half will be more
conservative, with the second half more wide-open as the
trailing team looks to catch up. But let's not stop there. Is
there anything in recent history to support this?
Last season, the Patriots and Eagles were tied 7-7 at the half,
then there were 31 points scored in the second half. As we
reasoned above, the Patriots jumped ahead 24-14 forcing the
Eagles to pass more in the fourth quarter to get back in the
game. Chalk one up for the second half having more scoring.
Two years ago, the Patriots and Panthers scored 24 first half
points. Then they tallied 35 in the second half. Actually, there
was no scoring in the third quarter and then the teams erupted
for 35 points in the wildest fourth quarter in Super Bowl
memory.
Three years ago, the Buccaneers led the Raiders 20-3 at the
half. That's 23 point. The Bucs went on to win 48-21, so there
were 46 second half points! Four years ago, the Patriots led the
Rams 14-3 at the half, then the teams combined for 20 second
half points.
Before that, the Ravens were up 10-0 on the Giants at the half,
then the teams combined for 31 second half points. Before that,
the Rams led 9-0 at the half over Tennessee. The teams combined
for 30 second half points.
Before that, Denver led Atlanta 17-6 at the half, a combined 23
points. Like the Patriots/Panthers Super Bowl, there was no
scoring in the third quarter, and then the teams erupted for 30
fourth quarter points! If you're keeping score, that's 7-0 the
last seven years where there has been more scoring in the second
half than the first half.
In the Broncos/Packers Super Bowl before that, the teams
combined for 31 first half points, then 24 second half points.
So we have to go back to 1998 to find the last time the first
half won that wager. This doesn't guarantee that there will be
more second half scoring this Sunday, of course, but my point is
to show you what handicappers do when assessing whether a prop
bet is worth a wager or not. There are dozens of interesting
prop bets to examine this Sunday. So get out there and find ones
you think may be worth wagering on. But don't stop there: Do
your homework to support your findings!