Super Bowl XL
The Pittsburgh line is shortening, on the spread they were at
-3.5 and are now generally -4. In one way it isn't surprising
since most of the country will be on Pittsburgh, but it is very
rare that a team that is favorite for the Super Bowl owns a
worse regular season record than their opponents. Since 1970,
when the leagues came together, it has happened only a handful
of times.
Here they are:
Super Bowl XXXVII, 2003: Tampa Bay (+3.5) v Oakland
Tampa was 12-4 in the regular season with Oakland at 11-5.
Oakland was favored in this game as they had the leagues most
effective offense. The Bucs team was defensive minded and
destroyed Oakland 48-21. Gruden had coached Oakland the year
before.
Super Bowl XIII, 1989: Cincinnati (+7) v San Francisco
The Bengals stood at 12-4 for the regular season, while the
49ers struggled at 10-6. The 49ers made the playoffs despite a
three way tie in the NFC West division. SF won 20-16 on a
fantastic last minute drive led by Joe Montana.
Super Bowl XII, 1988: Washington (+3) v Denver
The Redskins were 11-4 during the regular season, with Denver
10-4-1, virtually identical records. The Broncos were in their
second straight Super Bowl, but had been hammered by the Giants
39-20 in the previous Bowl. Yet Denver were favored by 3
probably because oddsmakers thought that John Elway was a better
coach than Washington's Doug Williams. The Redskins murdered the
Broncos 42 to 10.
Super Bowl VII, 1973: Miami (+2) v Washington
This famous Dolphins team went 14-0 in the regular season. The
Redskins were 11-3. In the AFC championship game Miami struggled
to defeat Pittsburgh, 21-17, while Washington cruised to a 26-3
victory over Dallas in the NFC championship game. Yet it was
amazing that Miami still went into the Super Bowl an underdog.
This may have been partly because of the championship game
against the Steelers but also because they had not faced a
particulary tough schedule that season, with some easy
opponents. The Dolphins triumphed 14-7 and have become legends
in their time as the only team to have a perfect season.
Super Bowl V, 1971: Baltimore (+1) v Dallas
The Ravens were 11-2-1 in the regular season, while Dallas were
10-4. But Baltimore was a small dog against a Cowboys team in
its first Super Bowl appearance. Baltimore won 16-13 in a poor
game.
So where is the common thread? Yep, five times the team with the
better regular season record was the underdog in the Super Bowl,
and five times out of five that team has covered the spread.
Four out five won straight up.
A few touts will jump at this one - of course it means nothing.
Had the number of times that this had occurred been 55 instead
of 5 - well then you certainly would sit up and take note. The
sample is still too small from a betting perspective.
It's a fun angle though!