How the Bird Flu Could Turn into a Pandemic
Should we be worried that the bird flu could turn into a
pandemic? Worldwide only 165 people have been infected and about
88 have died. The people who became infected had close contact
with infected birds. Currently it is not spread by
human-to-human transmission. But scientists fear that it will
turn into a form that can be easily spread person to person or
mix with normal flu viruses to provide that human transmission.
When that happens, the chances of a world bird flu pandemic will
have greatly increased.
We have seen bird flu virus spread among poultry throughout
Southeast Asia and is now moving towards the west with new cases
being discovered in Turkey, Iran, Africa, Greece and now Italy.
While everything is being done to stop the spread, it continues
to spread to other parts of the globe. New outbreaks will
continue to pop up. Migratory birds are carrying it into Europe,
Africa, Russia, and throughout the Middle East. When new cases
are confirmed in those countries we will know it is continuing
to spread. The first cases of bird flu have now reached northern
Africa. In African countries already devastated by HIV, poverty,
famine, war and lack of health care it will infect the
population at a much greater rate than other parts of the world.
This will probably provide the greatest chance of the virus
mutating into a form that can pass from person to person through
human contact, coughs, etc. As more people become infected, the
greater chance it will start to spread around the world. This is
why the greatest chance of a bird flu pandemic will come not
from Asia, where new outbreaks are being monitored very
carefully, but from Africa.
In 1918 the Influenza started in Kansas and spread around the
world within 9 months infecting millions and killing an
estimated 40-50 million people. Today with increased population,
more people living closer together in large cities and air
travel, it could spread very quickly. One person traveling by
air could infect dozens of other passengers, and those
passengers would spread it to other travelers and other cities.
A person coughing at a basketball game or concert. Another
person coughing as they walk through the skyways to their
office, leaving the virus on door handles as they go. Adults
spreading it to children, who bring it to school, who bring it
home. One "superspreader" could infect dozens of people.
Within weeks or months the flu has spread around the world.
Emergency plans put in place may not be quick enough. Anti viral
medication will take 6 months to get into production and
delivered to those who need it. Planned regional stockpiles of
antiviral medicine will quickly dwindle. Once the dominos start
falling we will be under the full effects of a pandemic crisis.
Once human-to-human transmission has been confirmed any where in
the world, we will have from one month to a year to prepare for
a possible avian influenza pandemic. Those who are not prepared
will be the hardest hit. Your best defense is to stay informed
about bird flu and start preparing for a potential avian
influenza pandemic now.