NCAA March Madness
How to handicap College Hoops NCAA March Madness Tournament
Edition
It is the time of year when conference championships are almost
upon us and there are several keys that should be looked at when
handicapping the tournaments during March Madness. Experience
pays off:
One has to look at teams that have played in championships to
get back to the championship round. In the last five years teams
that have won the championship has made it back to the big game
63% of the time. This has to do with being able to handle the
pressure of the big game.
Depth:
Depth is a must for the championship tournament as it will
always give an edge to a team when it comes to late in the
tournament when teams have played several games over several
days. Teams that are strong in depth allow players to be fresher
longer and eat up precious time as well as fouls at any given
time.
Rebounding:
This one is rather obvious has teams that rebound the ball well
get a second chance at missed shots and will often control the
tempo of the game for the most part. The teams in conference
that have had the rebounding edge has gone to the championship
round more often than not.
Free Throws:
Another obvious one is free throws. Teams that can shoot free
throws will win games down the stretch and in conference
tournaments they are invaluable. With the basics of picking a
winner in the conference tournaments out of the way let's look
at some of the intangibles that will make you money ATS.
Ride the Streak:
Hot teams coming into the tournament are always a play in my
book. These teams usually get all the bounces, play the game the
hardest and take advantage of teams playing out the string.
However a note here is if the team is undefeated in conference
play when they enter the tournament I suggest a play against
them SU and ATS.
Stay away from the last team to make the tournament:
The #8 seed is a dangerous go of things in conference
tournaments. They have played the #1 seed before (often twice)
and so the #1 seed knows exactly what to expect and is not
surprised by the play or the temp unlike March Madness when the
lower seeds surprise more often. The #8 seed is not a money
maker ATS either as they are just 51% ATS in conference
tournaments.
Your upsets will be from the middle of the pack:
This makes sense as the teams ranked #4-#6 are often playing
opposition with equal talent or close to it. This is where the
dog will become more valuable than not and will have an easier
path to getting to the conference championship and often cashing
as an underdog along the way.
The conference tournaments to me are very valuable when
considering the big dance in March. The reason is simple. When
you play close attention to the conference tournaments you are
watching teams that will make the Big Dance and you will get
insight on how to play them when March Madness starts. For up to
date information on March Madness stop by Bang The Book Sports
Handicapping Forum at http://www.bangthebook.com