Man's most dangerous enemy is at the gates
Copyright 2006 John Piper
Man's greatest enemy cannot be seen, it cannot be heard, and it
is so small that billions, yes billions, will fit onto the head
of a pin. As you read this, the enemy is massing for an attack.
Many billions, many trillions of these beings are busy trying to
find the key so that they can infect you. A few have already
succeeded but at that point in their evolution it was not easy
for a human being to get infected and the virus, known as H5N1
but more commonly called bird flu, was very alien to human
physiology. This resulted in a very high death rate - in excess
of 50% of those infected in the very early days.
As the virus continues to evolve there is hope, based on past
experience, that as it becomes more adaptable to human beings it
will become less deadly.
In 1918 an ancestor of this virus, H1N1 by name, launched a mass
attack on us and killed up to 100 million people. I cannot be
precise, as in 1918 records were not kept as carefully as today,
and this virus hit as the Great War ended and confusion reigned.
But the UK National Health Service puts the death toll at 50
million and that does not include those who were misdiagnosed or
those who were killed in the resulting panic or as a result of
the disruption of vital services.
In 1918 we did not even know what a virus was and it is tempting
to think that this time round we will be ready. But the sad fact
is we are not. There is no effective vaccine in place and there
cannot be until we know what form the virus will take when the
pandemic starts. We could spend millions producing vaccine but
then we might find it is useless. Some might say we should
anyway and that is something I will touch on later.
But are there not anti-viral drugs? Yes, these do exist but
Tamiflu, which seems likely to have most effect, is in very
short supply. It is also in high demand - it is available on the
internet but at over $600 for five packs of ten - usual price
from Roche, around $20 per pack!
The effectiveness of Tamiflu is aslo suspect with resistant
forms of the virus already in place. The more Tamiflu that is
used the more resistant strains will appear. Similarly as
millions of birds are vaccinated the virus has more and more
"experience" and learns to bypass these enemies.
But do not despair, there is plenty that you can do and I will
cover this in future articles.