I stated in last week's article, "Consolidating Gains," that the stock market will sometimes create a self-fulfilling prophesy, because the current SPX rally, which started in October, is similar to the rally that started in April, although the current rally was roughly two weeks ahead of the April rally. SPX continued to follow the "script" last week, while still ahead of the previous rally.

The vertical line in the SPX daily chart below compares similar technical points (above and below the price chart) between the April and current rallies to show where the current rally is now compared to the previous rally. If the self-fulfilling prophesy completes, SPX will be in an uptrend for another two months and rise to about 1,300.

SPX traded between two strong support and resistance levels recently, which are in the 1,160s and 1,250s (see "SPX Multi-Year Support & Resistance Levels" article). SPX has risen about 70 points over the past month, after holding strong support levels. Normally, after a steep rise, a period of consolidation takes place. However, SPX may rise into the 1,240s, just below strong resistance, before consolidating.

Next week is options expiration week, which is typically volatile. November Max Pain expirations for SPX OEX and QQQQ indicate the market will be much lower next week, e.g. an SPX 20 point pullback. However, Max Pain doesn't work every month and sometimes the Max Pain point is the highest or lowest level the market can reach.

Consequently, if SPX rises into the 1,240s early next week, it may pullback to 1,225 later in the week. An SPX 1,225 to 1,245 trading range is not a large range over one week. If SPX rises into the 1,240s, it will be near the four-year peaks at 1,246 and 1,243. So, the market may become cautious, since it may believe there's little short-term upside, which may generate greater volatility.

The catalysts for the rally have been falling oil prices, a strong Treasury auction, and slightly better than expected economic data. Oil fell below $60 a barrel in mid-October, for the first time in about three months, and may continue the downtrend towards $50. Strong support in U.S. Treasury bonds by foreigners boosts investor confidence. Recent economic data suggest a continuation of above trend growth with tame inflation, at least for several more months.

There are many important economic reports next week--Monday: None, Tuesday: PPI, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and Empire State Index, Wednesday: CPI, and Oil Inventory report, Thursday: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Unemployment Claims, and Philadelphia Fed, Friday: None. The variabilities of monthly economic reports should contribute to volatility.

Large cap stocks have lagged small cap stocks over the past few years. However, large caps may soon outperform small caps. Also, many industries will benefit from lower oil and gasoline prices. and many stocks in those industries will continue to rise, while "second-tier" stocks catch-up. Moreover, volatility may pick-up, short-term, while the market consolidates.

Charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Overview section.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.