Expectations for Trading or Investing Returns

Clearly, anyone who trades does so with the expectation of making profits. We take risks to gain rewards. The question each trader must answer, however, is what kind of return he or she expects to make? This is a very important consideration, as it speaks directly to what kind of trading will take place, what market or markets are best suited to the purpose, and the kinds of risks required.

Let s start with a very simple example. Suppose a trader would like to make 10% per year on a very consistent basis with little variance. There are any number of options available. If interest rates are sufficiently high, the trader could simply put the money in a fixed income instrument like a CD or a bond of some kind and take relatively little risk. Should interest rates not be sufficient, the trader could use one or more of any number of other markets (stocks, commodities, currencies, etc.) with varying risk profiles and structures to find one or more (perhaps in combination) which suits the need. The trader may not even have to make many actual transactions each year to accomplish the objective.

A trader looking for 100% returns each year would have a very different situation. This individual will not be looking at the cash fixed income market, but could do so via the leverage offered in the futures market. Similarly, other leverage based markets are more likely candidates than cash ones, perhaps including equities. The trader will almost certainly require greater market exposure to achieve the goal, and most likely will have to execute a larger number of transactions than in the previous scenario.

As you can see, your goal dictates the methods by which you achieve it. The end certainly dictates the means to a great degree.

There is one other consideration in this particular assessment, though, and it is one which harks back to the earlier discussion of willingness to lose. Trading systems have what are commonly referred to as drawdowns. A drawdown is the distance (measured in % or account/portfolio value terms) from an equity peak to the lowest point immediately following it. For example, say a trader