Golden Corral 500: Making Friends With Your Fast

Those new Volkswagen commercials are weird.

You know the ones: some dude is sitting behind the wheel of his new VW, hearing Darth Vader voices in his head. Someone else is telling him he's got to slow down---his girlfriend, his buddy or a police officer---but the Vader voice is adamant: he must go faster. The camera cuts to a weird shiny little gizmo, from whence the voice is presumably coming. Cue the tagline: "Make Friends With Your Fast."

Huh?

I don't get it, but it's appropriate as the Smokeless Set heads for Atlanta Motor Speedway. Which is very, very fast. Until the 2005 season, Atlanta was considered the fastest unrestricted track on which the good ol' boys run. In '05, Charlotte was resurfaced, which made it slightly faster (to disastrous effect: tires kept exploding), and Texas was slightly faster last season as well. But Sunday afternoon in Atlanta, you won't be able to tell the Nextel Cuppers that there's any place in the world that's scarier. Atlanta is a 190-mph maniac's paradise: bumpy, wide, high-banked and dangerous. We'll probably see some long green-flag runs, but we'll also see drama. What could've been better than Carl Edwards passing Jimmie Johnson on the final straightaway in this event last year?

In fact, Edwards swept Atlanta in '05, and was dang good on the similarly configured tracks in Charlotte and Texas, too. In those six events last season, he won three times, came third once, and 10th another time: best in the biz. It'll be important for us to look at recent history at all three tracks this week. They really are almost identical: 1.5-milers with a full 24 degrees of banking. That means the best cars may not even have to get out of the gas as they go through the turns, and it also means danger is this race's middle name. Let's take a look at who stands out as the best values for the Golden Corral 500.

Last Week: Well, it was a crusher. Matt Kenseth dominated the race and had it sewn up with four laps to go, when NASCAR called a lame, unneeded and made-for-TV caution. Johnson had been slowly gaining on Kenseth, but wasn't going to catch him without some help. He got it. Johnson passed Kenseth in Vegas the way Edwards passed Johnson in Atlanta last spring, and I scared the heck out of my dogs yelling at the TV. Nevertheless, Tony Stewart did win his head-to-head battle against Edwards, so I finished the week marginally ahead: .43 units to the positive. For the year, then, I've had two winning weeks out of three events, for a total of plus 1.87 units. Ah, but what might've been....

(Note that the following odds come from PinnacleSports.com.)

Take Carl Edwards (+588), 1/3rd unit. He didn't qualify well on Friday (18th), and has looked a hair 'off' all season. (And for the thespian-inclined Edwards, every hair simply must be in place.) However, he got it together in Happy Hour on Saturday afternoon, posting the session's best lap and sounding like a guy who thinks he can win Sunday. Considering he swept every single stock-car race run at Atlanta Motor Speedway last year, I smell a trend. And I'm not betting against the trend, because I'm not a moron. Allegedly.

Take Jimmie Johnson (+989), 1/3rd unit. Time to get on the bus. Johnson has two firsts and a second in three events this year, and that's, um, good. He, too, qualified relatively poorly (14th), but unlike Edwards didn't look particularly good in post-qualifying practice. I don't care. He's got the hottest team in the world right now, and as far as I'm concerned, he can go ahead and run 20th all day going into the race's final 30 laps, like he did in Vegas. You know the march forward will come. These are very nice odds from oddsmakers who are spooked about his practice times. I'm not.

Take Jeff Burton (+2028), 1/3rd unit. This is a bit outside the box, and more conservative bettors can certainly consider polesitter Kasey Kahne (+581), cookie-cutter ace Tony Stewart (+1389) or almost-as-hot-as-Johnson Matt Kenseth (+1243). But I'm going to take a stab at Burton. Judging by the past two weeks, RCR seems to have made real strides in its downforce program: Burton came sixth at California and eighth at Vegas, and both Kevin Harvick (+1847) and Clint Bowyer (part of field: +2679) ran quite a bit better than their finishing spots indicate. The new RCR star, however, appears to be Burton, who has run up front all season long. Perhaps I'll kick myself for staying away from my perpetual unrestricted-intermediate-speedway favorite Greg Biffle (+862), but this is a swing-for-the-fences type of selection. Let 'er rip.

Christopher Harris is a featured writer for the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com