The chart below is a three-year weekly comparison chart of the Price of Copper (candlesticks and right scale), PD (dashed pink line and left scale), and FCX (dashed green line). PD and FCX are two of the largest three copper producers (along with PCU). Last week, copper traded almost entirely above its weekly upper Bollinger Band and closed above 280 cents a pound Fri. Moreover, both the weekly RSI and ULT closed above 80. Furthermore, the weekly MACD and CCI are at extreme levels.

The chart shows copper traded well above its upper Bollinger Bands only twice before over the current bull market, i.e. in the first quarter of 2004 and in the fourth quarter of 2004. Both times copper fell sharply. Also, over the past three years, PD and FCX have risen by higher percentages than copper. However, currently, PD, FCX, and copper are higher by roughly equal percentages, which indicate a pullback in copper is already partially discounted by PD and FCX.

FCX reports earnings Tue. Last quarter, FCX beat earnings expectations by 43 cents. After an initial five point bounce to over 60, it eventually rose to 65, and a month later fell to 50. FCX is at a double top around 65. PD paid a $5 per share special dividend in Dec and announced another $2 special dividend in early Apr. Copper has risen from 200 to 280 cents per pound over the past 3 1/2 months with mean prices of about 190 in the fourth quarter and over 220 in the first quarter. One analyst noted for every penny per pound rise in copper, PD earnings rise 8 cents per share (annually).

Given the severely overbought level of copper, either a volatile consolidation or a large correction will take place soon. Normally, PD and FCX are more volatile than copper. However, PD, FCX, and copper may move by roughly the same percentages. Consequently, the chart indicates, if copper falls from 280 to 260, PD may fall from 85 to 80. Moreover, copper tends to move closely with gold, which reached over 600 last week, although gold is less overbought. However, gold stocks are also partially discounting a pullback in the price of gold. Within the next few months, gold may fall to 550 or 500.

Charts available at http://www.peaktrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.