Recently I was exposed to the concept of peak oil. This is the concept that at a certain point in time oil production reaches a plateau and then steadily declines. This concept can be applied to a single oil field, a country, or global world production. Every oil field follows a similar bell curve. As production begins, the bell curve steadily increases, eventually reaching an apex. This apex is called peak oil, and it does not last very long. Inevitably, production begins to decline, thereby creating the downward bell curve.

In the United States, peak oil occurred in 1970. That year, we produced 10 million barrels per day. The apex only lasted a few months and then production began to decline. Today we produce less than 5 million barrels per day and the decline continues unabated.

I knew that oil was a limited finite resource and that sometime in the future oil production would not meet world demand. I knew that day was approaching, but I always assumed it would not occur until at least 2015 and possibly 2025, and that by that time we would have a substitute. I was too optimistic.

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