Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) tracking emerging markets have had a remarkable run. In 2005, the South Korea (EWY) was been up 57%, Brazil (EWZ) up 56%, Mexico (EWW) up 49% and the Emerging Markets (EEM) up 34%. In the last 12 months, China (FXI) has shown some life up 26% and South Africa is up 32%.

The MSCI Emerging Market index is up 82% since mid-2004. In addition, lower risk countries like Singapore (EWS) have been up for four straight years and its Straits Times Index has risen by 85% since 2003.

I am getting a lot of call lately about what to do next. Should investors buy, hold or sell?

There are two arguments out there about the future of emerging markets at polar extremes from each other. BCA Research notes that despite the run up in prices over the past three years, trailing and forward PEs are only 13 and 11 respectively. Both are far from being out of line from both a fundamental and a historical basis. Brazil is a good example with a market at about 10 times earnings.

Morgan Stanley took a different view in a research report published last week. It points to the shrinking of the sovereign risk premium for emerging markets as a sign of potential weakness. In other words, the degree of higher interest rates demanded from the market to offset the higher risk of emerging markets has shrunk sharply. In 2004 it was 3.5% and now it is about 0.50%. There can be little doubt that this shrinkage has fueled at least part of the rise in emerging markets.

The truth probably lies in the middle of these extremes. The world is filling in and emerging markets will very likely outperform more mature markets but don