Will Summer Bring a Buyer's Market? The Current State of the Real-Estate Market

Just over a month ago I wrote an article on just where I felt the real estate market was heading. I argued that interest rates would continue to rise as the Fed worried about inflation, and builders, who were loudly proclaiming the market is simply cooling off, were just trying to generate additional sales. Another interest rate hike later, the Fed has indicated that further hikes are not off the table, gas prices have continued to rise, and home inventories are reaching epic proportions.

I received dozens of emails from readers who claimed I was misconstruing the numbers, while others suggested I was too stupid to ever own a home, and should consign myself to renting. It is in the spirit of those emails that I offer up these juicy market tidbits. Enjoy!

Ameriquest recently reported a 46% plunge in loan volume, which resulted in 229 retail branch closures, and 3800 jobs eliminated. They are not alone. Saxon Mortgage and ECC Capital Corp. also announced branch closures as rising interest rates continue to drive buyers out of the market and squeeze mortgage brokers nation wide.

On May 6, the Honolulu Star Bulletin reported Honolulu home sales down 41% year-over-year in April, and Maui condo sales off by 50%.

On the mainland, California homeowners and speculators are taking a beating as well. Year-over-year home sales are down a whooping 46% in Sacramento, 30% in San Francisco, and a staggering 50% in Los Angeles/Long Beach.

Checking the Atlantic side of the continent we find the New York Times reporting on May 9 that the inventory of homes for sale in the Fort Lauderdale area has quadrupled, year over year, to 20,000. Ouch! I almost feel sorry for all those speculators in Florida. Ok, not really.

On May 15, 2006 Marketwatch reported