Within two weeks, SPX reached a high at 1,326.70 and a low at 1,256.28. Consequently, a correction may be underway that's not yet complete. The first three daily charts below show the SPX 1994 correction, the current 2006 SPX, and the initial SPX 2000 correction. Generally, the three charts show, not long after reaching a high, a fall to around the 200-day MA took place. The two previous charts show bounces from the 200-day MA, over two or three weeks, and then pullbacks.

The fourth chart is an SPX weekly chart that shows over the past two weeks, SPX fell from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower Bollinger Band. Consequently, the steep fall created a severely short-term oversold condition. The lower weekly Bollinger Band, currently 1,256 3/4, is a major support level. Also, the 200-day MA is currently 1,257 3/4. Further support are the 2006 low and a multi-year Fibonacci level, both at 1,246.

SPX 1,275 has been a key support and resistance level. Generally, SPX may trade in the lower half of weekly Bollinger Bands, currently between 1,256 3/4 and 1,289 1/2, over the next two weeks. If SPX reaches about 1,290 short-term, it may pullback in Jun, perhaps to 1,246 or lower. The fifth chart is an SPX monthly chart that suggests a fall below the middle monthly Bollinger Band, currently 1,222, will indicate the end of the cyclical bull market.

Charts available at http://www.peaktrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast section.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.