Former Terrorrists Getting into Government need Time, not God on
their Side
Today, in many countries' political realities, tribalist and
nationalist or globalist forces clash fiercely, undermining
chances of peace and democracy. This is particularly topical in
the Middle East, where efforts by established leaderships to
discourage armed conflict have reached a new phase, in which
both Hezbollah and Hamas, organizations labeled 'terrorist' by
the US, are nudged to start thinking about participation in
mainstream politics.
The number of countries in the world at the moment that are in
some form of transition is higher than some ten years ago, and
in some ways more efforts are made to resolve situations that
threaten stability. And the moves of all involved parties are
not without major-league risks.
By finally addressing security issues by making a clean
sweepthrough, the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is slowly
shifting into gear, starting the clampdown on Palestinian
insurgency that has long been called for. he has even told Hamas
fighters publicly to give up their arms, This was a first for
the president who until now has been anything but clear on
security issues. The Hamas leaders according to a report in the
London Asharq Al Awsat paper are reportedly planning to return
to Gaza after the Israelis have withdrawn.
The newspaper report detailed that the leaders are likely to
move their group's political bureau to Gaza as soon as Israel
transfers control over the border crossings to the Palestinian
Authority. "When a militia turns into a political party, I
believe the issue of a need for arms becomes irrelevant," Abbas
was quoted as saying. "There will be only one authority, one law
and one legal [armed force]," according to the recently elected
Palestinian leader, who played down the risks involved in the
operation, saying that this has happened many times before in
history.
Hamas leaders however deemed it necessary to reiterate that they
have no intention of disarming at all. "Our fingers will remain
on the rifle triggers until the removal of the occupation,"
Hamas spokesman Mushir al-Masri said, according to the Israeli
Al Haaretz paper. Even though Hamas has participated in the
elections recently, Masri doubted that this means the members
are actually going to function as such.
It is remarks like these that worry the international community
very much. US President George W. Bush has been said to be
waiting with inviting the Palestianian leader Abbas until he has
got something of substance to report. Perhaps an invitation will
finally be extended soon now. The Palestinian leader has
installed a hardliner as new intelligence chief. Tareq Abu
Rajab, who used to be deputy intelligence chief, is known to
have played an important role in a crackdown on the militant
group Hamas.
Hamas, which has participated in municipal elections already,
might see next July's municipal elections turn out in its favor.
"Extrapolating from the present point in time, Hamas I believe
would gain between 30 and 50 percent in the elections to the
Palestinian Legislative Council in July. Fateh is in total
disarray and is searching for its lost identity", said Matti
Steinberg, an Israeli former security advisor to two heads of
the Israel General Security Service. "Hamas could register
considerable gains in elections and possibly demand to play a
role in the next Palestinian Authority government", according to
Yossi Alpher, a former senior advisor to Israeli Prime Minister
Ehud Barak. The gains that the 'party to be' is likely to win
are largely due to unhappiness of the Palestine population with
the Fateh party, which has lost its identity more or less due to
dysfunctioning of the PA.
This is echoed by Ghassan Khattib, the Palestinian Authority
minister of planning. "It is possible that Hamas, which so far
maintains a fundamentalist ideological and extreme political
position, will become a pragmatic movement if it has the chance
to be part of official politics, locally, regionally and
internationally. The rhetoric of Hamas now reminds many of
Fateh's rhetoric when it was treated by the "legitimate powers"
as an "illegal terrorist group". Fateh successfully worked out a
trade-off. It was recognized and included in the system in
return for playing politics within the parameters of
international legality", he says.
Some view the moves of the radicalists to mainstream politics as
a positive transformation and it is surely to be hoped that the
organizations involved in the decades-long strife in the region
that are now close to becoming involved in mainstream politics,
will ultimately disarm. Yet their popularity might be evidencing
real hardship on the ground. Aside from what's driving the
islamist vote, Israel's reaction to a possible Hamas inclusion
into the PA might not be favorable and it might be unwilling to
negotiate with Hamas leaders. But then, this might not turn out
to be the case. Prime Minister Sharon who is said by some to
favor a peace process that is open ended might think he has a
better negotiating partner in a Hamas partipated PA.
It is also going to be interesting what is going to be happening
with Hizbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah leaders have expressed
opposition to disarmament that's as strong as the the
Palestinian Hamas leaders. So far, this issue, the groups'
status as terrorist and their unwillingness to recognize Israel
as a state has always deterred countries like the US to deal
with them as mature political entities. This is changing. Word
in the diplomatic corridors has it that the State Department
might acquiesce in Hizballah's entry into Lebanese politics if
it abandons terrorism and severs its political and operational
ties with Syria. This US recognition of Hizballah could serve as
a precedent for US acceptance of a political role for Hamas.
So far it looks like every major move that the islamist groups
make by definition will continue to go accompanied with pledges
to hold onto arms. But one ought to bear in mind that often the
public rhetoric is different than any private action. The leader
of Hezbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrullah, recently reiterated that
his group will not give up their weapons. In an interview with
Reuters he said that his party will keep its weapons and will
not give it up, noting that this decision is because of the
continued Israeli occupation and the risks of occupation against
his country. He even snubbed the UN, saying that its Security
Council resolution demanding Hizbullah to hand over its weapons
is 'meaningless' and 'of no value'.
Meanwhile, in Iraq Al Qaeda's Jordanian-born leader Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi also recently publicly rejected a call from the new
Iraqi president for militants to lay down their arms. Calling
the new Iraqi leader President Jalal Talabani an agent of the US
and Jews, the rebels said they would continue their strife until
Sharia law was established in the country and never forgive the
leader for his "infidelity" and "spilling of the blood of
Muslims". It is not clear whether the statement, posted on a
website used by Islamist militants is authentic. It is a smack
in the face however of Mr Talabani, who has been quite lenient
to those Iraqi's who have taken to violence over the past few
years, saying a peaceful solution should be found with Iraqis
who were 'led astray' by terrorism. He even invited them in to
participate in the democratic process and offered some convicted
terrorists an amnesty.