What Is A Flu Pandemic And How Likely Is It?
A pandemic is a global epidemic in which an infectious disease
breaks out over a large geographic region. A flu pandemic is, of
course, an epidemic of a strain of the influenza virus. With the
recent media coverage of bird flu, many people are becoming
educated on avian influenza, pandemics in history, and the
likelihood another may occur.
There have actually been several pandemics or epidemics of
various flu strains in the last century. One of which, the
Spanish Flu, surfaced in 1918 in Massachusetts and spread
worldwide, killing 50 million people. This particular strain,
H1N1, has been reconstructed by the Center for Disease Control
to study the molecular make up of the virus.
The Asian Flu spread from China in 1957 to the United States and
led to the death of 70,000 people. Likewise, the Hong Kong Flu
was identified in the U.S. in 1968 and led to 34,000 people
dying. This strain of the flu virus is still in circulation
today.
If you look back into history, there is record of influenza
pandemics varying in intensity at 20-40 year intervals. So, to
answer the question, "how likely is a flu pandemic", the answer
would have to be relatively likely.
However, the history books will also show things like the Black
Plague, the Antonine Plague, and the Plague of Justinian;
bubonic plague and smallpox being the most likely causes of
these pandemics. With our advanced medical technology, these
diseases have almost completely been removed from circulation
and have little threat on modern society.
For this reason, many people doubt the likelihood of a pandemic
considering technical advancements in medical diagnosis and
treatment. Others expect a vaccine to be developed before any
widespread infection of the bird flu virus.
The current outbreak of avian influenza has infected 131 people
and killed 68 of those. With an exceptional mortality rate, this
virus has a potential to be a danger. The accelerated spread of
the disease is also reason for concern. In less than two years,
it has covered Asia, Europe, and the Middle East and is
mutating, unfortunately, to a form that may be transmitted more
easily. Each of these factors, coupled with the fact that no
vaccine for the mutated form has been created and can not be
created until after mutation occurs, supports the possibility of
a pandemic. If the mutation occurs and a vaccine is developed
quickly, there may be no concern for the incredible panic
sweeping the world.