Bird Flu Fears
Remember the good old days when a cold consisted of a runny
nose, stuffed up sinuses, and a few aches & pains?
Or how about the flu? I remember as a kid, the worst horror
story I ever heard of was someone having a week of diarrhea &
vomiting. That was scary stuff, and not even so much in the fact
that you would feel downright rotten, but the embarassment of it
all.
Times have changed....
It seems every year you hear about some crazy new viral mutation
or "superbug" sweeping into the population, ready and willing to
not just make us sick, but to outright kill us.
Infectious diseases have always been a threat to mankind. In the
past 10 years we have seen many new & reemerging diseases come
to the surface - SARS, Monkeypox, Malaria, Tuberculosis, West
Nile Virus, and the most popular of our time - HIV/AIDS. A
report from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases published a 10-year perspective where it showed that
nearly 25% of all worldwide deaths are caused by infectious &
parasitic diseases. That's about 15 million out of some 57
million annual deaths.
In comes "Bird Flu"......
Technically known as "avian influenza" H5N1, it is the latest
infectious threat on the scene, making headlines around the
world - and for good reason. There have been reports that it
could kill anywhere between 50% - 90% of those infected. It's
important to remember that opinions & theories are going to vary
because there just isn't enough data to work with in
establishing a true perspective on what h5N1 could do. We do
know that out of 117 reported human cases, 60 were fatal. That
is indeed a scary number.
There is a lot of controversy over the numbers though. Some
scientists claim the threat of bird flu is much lower, while
others predict a global outbreak in the very near future that
could kill millions. It appears to be yet another issue where
the "experts" can only guess.
People become infected when they come into contact with infected
poultry and poultry feces, usually during the process of
slaughtering and preparing meat. The World Health Organization
reports though that this does not occur in everyone exposed
though. For many years it has essentially been a disease
affecting birds, but over time managed to cross over into a
threat to humans.
So why the worry?
What worries scientists is that if given the right conditions,
the H5N1 virus could mutate into a new form which would allow
human-to-human infection, sparking a global pandemic. There has
been at least one reported case of human-to-human infection in
Thailand already, so the question now is not "if", but "when" it
will occur. H5N1 is now firmly established in large parts of
Asia, with each human infection giving the virus more
opportunity to adapt and mutate. Based on it's history, makeup
and what we've learned from it's cousins & past pandemics, it's
ability & likelihood of mutating is very high, making the risk
for a global pandemic a very real possibility.
Don't they have anything to treat this?
Unfortunately, there is no commercially available product which
can prevent H5N1 infection in humans. It is under development in
several countries, but no vaccines are expected to be available
for several months until after the onset of a pandemic. The
problem is that they can only guess as to what the virus will
look & behave like in a mutated form. It's like trying to figure
out what a 2 month old child will look like when they are 20 and
buying the clothes long before you even know if they'll fit.
Most recently, a drug called Tamiflu was being stockpiled by
some countries to combat H5N1, but there are reports that it may
not be very effective at all. Tamiflu was really designed for
your "average joe" flu that we all have has at some point. In
higher doses, it may work to some degree. Then again, it might
not. We just don't know that yet. As with everything - there is
controversy, mixed messages & conflicting expert opinions. There
have been a number of other vaccines (old & new) being discussed
in the news recently. To keep up on the vaccine situation, it
probably best to keep your eye on the WHO website at:
http://www.wpro.who.int/health_topics/avian_influenza/
If there is one thing everyone can agree on is that the world is
not prepared. WHO has urged all countries to establish
preparedness plans, but only around 40 have done so and most
developing countries simply don't have the resources to prepare
themselves and even fewer have access to vaccines.
How ironic that "chicken soup" has been the choice for curing
colds and flus for so many generations.