The Dish: Colts Get Stampeded

I told you so. All season, I've looked like a turd. I've warned you about the soft Indianapolis secondary. I've told you that any team relying on Corey Simon to be at the core of their defensive rebuilding effort is bound to be disappointed. I've pointed to the ridiculously easy first-half schedule, and the lucky breaks the Colts got when late-season opponents like New England and Jacksonville suffered key injuries the week before Indy played them. I've picked against them so many times, I'm fairly certainly every single American living in the 317 area code has, at some point over the past four months, crank-called my house. (How are you rednecks getting my number, anyway?) But I stuck to my guns, and picked the Steelers to win outright last weekend. Sweet vindication. Finally someone made the Colts look sick. Is Peyton Manning a very good quarterback? Yes. Are the Colts' skill players as good as anyone else's skill players? Yes. But is that defense really one of the league's best? Absolutely, posit-friggin-tively no. The corners are average. Bob Sanders is a fine player against the run but couldn't cover Bea Arthur in a pass pattern. Dwight Freeney is a monster when he's one-on-one and frankly invisible when he's not (which is the fate of extremely light defensive ends). No one else on the defensive line really scares you. It's extremely possible to line up on both sides of the ball, punch the Colts in the mouth, and rattle them. Did you see Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne complain on every single play? That's what comes from Ike Taylor popping you repeatedly in the mouth. Indy's problem is the same as it ever was: too much offense, not enough defense. Too much finesse, not enough muscle. Too much complexity with the ball, too much vanilla without the ball. It's a tremendous recipe for regular-season success. But against very good, physical teams in crunch time? I told you so. What do you make of the Colts' downfall? Is Peyton Manning simply not an accurate and steady enough quarterback to beat very good teams in big games? Greg Jorssen, BoDog.com: People already saying that Peyton is this generation's Dan Marino: a guy that has tremendous talent, but doesn't have what it takes to get it done when it matters most. Remember: the University of Tennessee didn't win a National Championship until the year after Manning left! I don't think there's any doubt that Peyton's time will come where he will lead his team to victory in games when it matters most. Let's remember that people were saying that about Elway for 14 years before he finally won the big one. My biggest concern with Peyton is not what he can and eventually will do on the field. It's how he conducts himself after a crushing defeat. He did a lot of finger-pointing in the post-game interviews, blaming the loss not on himself but on his offensive line. A lot of "I" and "they," whereas in Denver, Tom Brady was saying a lot of "we" after his devastating loss to the Broncos. At the end of the day, Manning has the heart, definitely has the passion and the skill. I think his downfall right now is simply that he cares so much about winning that he simply can't relax out on the field and get down to simply just playing the game. I told you those Indy and Seattle lines were too big. What was the net result of the Indy game, in particular, handicapping-wise? And how did the books do for the Divisional Round weekend overall? GJ, BoDog.com: The Seattle line was perfect, actually: they closed as a nine-point favorite and won by 10. The Indy result was a good one for us. At the start of the week the action was pretty balanced; however, we received a lot of sharp money on the Colts closer to kickoff which made us big Steeler fans when the game started. It was a crazy weekend overall, in that bettors liked the road dog in three out of the four games. With Pittsburgh winning outright, Seattle covering, Denver winning outright and three out of the four games' total going Under, the book had a very strong weekend. What do you expect in the conference championships, both from a "real" and gambling perspective? GJ, BoDog.com: Another strange weekend is coming, in that we will be cheering on both home favorites. Bettors are still loving the Panthers, with two-thirds of the handle so far placed on Carolina to cover +4. As for the Steelers and Broncos, the action is pretty balanced, with the slight edge on Pittsburgh covering +3. Both games have bettors believing the score will go Over the posted totals of 43.5 and 41, respectively. From a real perspective, I believe that something has to seriously give with both games. Pittsburgh's road record over the past two years is 15-3 (8-2 this year), and will be matched up against the Broncos, who are a perfect 9-0 at home. In the NFC, the Panthers' road record this year is also 8-2, and they're visiting the unbeaten at home Seattle Seahawks. I think the Panthers are playing on enough emotion that it will carry them to the Super Bowl. Their defense is one of the league's best in stopping the run, and I don't think Seattle has a corner that can stop Steve Smith. This should be a close one, but am predicting a Panther upset. As for the AFC, speaking of emotion how can you not believe the Steelers will continue their momentum right into the Super Bowl? Their blitzing attack on Sunday brought down the mighty Colts, and I believe the trend of upsets in the postseason will carry on. You could very well see two teams equal the feat of the 1986 Patriots by winning three straight road games to get into the title game. Football is certainly dominating my thoughts right now, but with NCAA Hoops heating up, are the bettors paying any attention yet? Where do they seem to be putting their money? What do you think the leading trends will be leading into March? GJ, BoDog.com: Bettors are paying more attention to the games, especially now they are in conference play. One trend that is glaringly obvious thus far is that the once powerhouse conferences are no longer as dominant as they were in years past. In the ACC, after Duke there really is no team that can do any damage this year in the tournament. It's not unrealistic to think that the Blue Devils can run the table in conference play. There are no national championship contenders in the Pac 10, only Florida in the SEC, and of course Texas in the Big 12. The exceptions to this trend are the Big East and Big 10, which are incredibly talented at the top of their conferences. We no longer have the dominant teams we once had, which leads one to believe that parity is quite evident in college hoops, more than ever before. I mean, think about it. When was the last time you can remember Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky all losing on the same night, and all on their home courts? All this will make for a wild March Madness tournament, where we'll see a tremendous amount of upsets.