Top 3 NFL picks for Sunday September 25th

Top Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over New England I've seen a few pundits weigh in on the Patriots, saying they'll be "more focused" after losing at Carolina. I don't believe a lack of focus plays into this one that much. Patriots are a championship team that is always focused, but simply are having problems in two key facets of the game. They couldn't run the ball, nor stop the run last week. Losing Bruschi is a factor after all, no surprise to many as he and Harrison were the heart and soul of the D last year. Problem is Harrison is a saftety, so his presence is sometimes negated. Offensively, they haven't been able to get Corey Dillon going, and will have a hard time doing so this week against this Steeler D. If this were a playoff game, I'd probably have to lay off this one, as Cowher has the habit on not winning the big games at home. This hasn't been a problem in the regular season, as evienced by the way they took apart the Eagles and these same Pats in 2004 regular season. Willie Parker has done a great job stepping up for Bettis and Staley, Big Ben looks better than he did when he took over last year. Pittsburgh looks like the best team in the AFC and maybe the entire NFL after two weeks, and I believe they should win this game at home easier than most people think. New England gets respect (as they should) for what they've accomplished the last few years. They are still the team to beat when January rolls around, But RIGHT NOW Pittsburgh is clearly the better team. Top Play: Pittsburgh -3 Regular play: Falcons/Bills UNDER 37 Now that it appears Vick will play, this total has been set at 37. Not convinced that Vick won't run, but the only question is how much he'll be able to move around. Bills also have a scrambling quarterback, and after last week's performance, it is even more clear that this offense runs through RB McGahee. Not afraid of either one of these QB's hurting the opposing D with their arm. 2 great defense, gonna be tough to drive the field for either offense. Both teams will need to force turnovers and give the offense a short field to be successful. As long as Vick and Losman doesn't hurt their teams with bad decisions, should be a 13-10 or 16-13 type game. Regular play: Bills/Falcons UNDER 37 Regular play: St. Louis Rams -6 1/2 over Tennessee After an embarrasing loss at San Fran, the Rams showed some toughness by coming back and winning in the desert vs. Arizona. Anyone who reads my writeups knows I'm definately no Martz fan, but his stubborness will actually be an advantage this week. Martz abandons the run too early most of the time, but against a young, inexperienced Titans secondary, they should pass the ball a bunch this week. Titans did a nice job stuffing the Ravens running game, but may not be as fortunate against Jackson and Faulk. Both are also dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield, which will occupy the strength of the Titans D, the linebackers. The Rams defense looked a lot better than last year, especially against the run. McNair at this pont of his career can't win games by himself, especially without the weapons he used to have on the outside. Two of his top weapons, WR Bennet AND RB Brown were both banged up last wek and are questionable for this one. I expect both to play, but neither will be at full strength. Travis Henry will have to shoulder more of the load, and I like the way the Rams front 7 has looked thus far. Also, getting back home on turf will help the Rams on both sides of the ball. They can really expose the Titans lack of speed. Regular play: Rams -6 1/2