THE LANDSCAPE IS CHANGING, ARE YOU READY?
As if the Nasdaq news weren't bad enough, Forrester Research
(FORR) said most Internet retailers would be out of business by
2001. Retailers find themselves being forced from the market by
depleting bank accounts and saturated markets. The story quoted
Mark Doll, a consultant for startup companies at Ernst & Young,
who said, "There are 30,000 e-tailers out there, and probably
25,000 will have to go away."
While alarming to many, this consolidation serves as a
fundamental benchmark to change. Or a wake-up call for your
company. The scope of the countryside is changing, not only in
focus but in infrastructure and applications. So how are
companies who find themselves pinched in the saturated landscape
suppose to survive, much less thrive? A look at the future of
the Internet should provide some insight.
VoIP - Voice-over Internet Protocol (VoIP) is a simple idea:
utilize the inexpensive infrastructure of the Internet to create
a convergence of voice and data. Already, you can make free long
distance phone calls on the web via freephone.com or
visitalk.com. Soon, you'll actually be able to call the Internet
from any telephone and ask for website information, stocks,
weather, make reservations, etc. The system searches the Net for
the information you seek and reads it back to you in a calm,
friendly voice. While both fast emerging industries, VoIP will
not achieve critical mass until a few kinks are worked out.
For long distance, the unreliability of the Internet and the
instability of browsers and applications are concerns. Consumers
will likely still be willing to pay 5 cents a minute for
something they KNOW always works the way they need it to. We've
used telephones all our lives and that will be difficult to
change especially if it sacrifices reliability. For voice
portals, the question is not only who wants to surf the net on a
phone but of the security issues involved. V-commerce or Voice
commerce will likely replace e-commerce but, again, the bugs are
in need of innovation but the implications are tremendous.
Imagine asking your database a question while conferencing with
a partner on your mobile phone. Or visitng a website and asking
product questions or ordering.
WAP - Wirless Application Protocol (WAP) is the standard
language developed by the WAP Forum (a consortium of major
telecommunications, Internet and software companies) to bring
the Internet onto wireless devices such as smart phones and
Personal Digital Assistants (PDA). WAP is the language used to
convert HTML websites into sites that are viewable on the small,
text-only screens now available on most mobile phones. While
still in its infancy, great strides are being made in
infrastructure, quality, security and applications.
International Data Corporation has even predicted that there
will be more wireless web subcriptions than PC Internet
subscriptions by 2003. It is further believed that at some point
after that, the PC will simply become a peripheral to the PDA or
phone.
Services, not products - With the emergence of Application
Service Providers or ASP's and the downfall of the e-tailer, it
is becoming increasingly clear that the Internet will primarily
provide services and applications in three areas: information,
entertainment and communications.
Despite its flaws, the Internet still serves as the best way to
find and collect information on any topic. Currently, this is
the primary use of the Web, but for entertainment, we still rent
videos or turn on the TV, for communications, we still pick up
the phone.
In communications, the growth of VoIP, v-commerce and wireless
Internet technologies will ultimately pull us into using the
Internet as our primary source of communication. For
entertainment, the Internet already offers gaming, streaming
video and downloadable audio, but these suffer from slow
download times and Internet, application or browser bugs. Yet,
higher bandwidth and broadband will ultimately make them as
smooth and quick as a broadcast signal. Further, with the merger
of AOL and Time-Warner along with the proliferation of cable
modems and set top boxes, the Internet will consume a greater
chunk of the entertainment pie. On demand movies, games, music,
even Internet "television" shows will rival networks, video
stores, satellite TV, merchandise, etc.
Simply understanding the emerging trends in technology can be a
competitive advantage. But building that knowledge and further
applying it to your strategy, website or company can help you
adjust, position and succed in the changing, chaotic landscape.