The Rise of Poker: Railbirds and Raisers
If you are not playing poker, you may soon be in the minority.
The game has come a long way from the dangerous days of the road
gamblers and prohibited backroom games. It is true that those
two things still exist in some places, but the game itself has
been propelled into limelight and into legitimate status, due in
large part to shows such as the World Poker Tour (Travel
Channel) and the World Series of Poker (ESPN).
According to America's Poker Face, an article by Betsy Streisand
(USNews.com, 2004), the number of poker players in America has
increased to about 80 million, a 30 million increase over the
estimated 50 million players just a few years ago. Most of these
players still play brick-and-mortar poker (in home games and
casinos), but the number of players now taking advantage of the
convenience of online poker games is rapidly growing. It is
estimated that there are over one million players playing online
at well over 1,500 sites. The lobby area of two major sites, Pa
rtyPoker.com and PokerSt
ars.com, regularly show over 60,000 and 40,000 players
online, respectively. These types of numbers are only expected
to explode over the next few years.
In poker terms, both the railbirds (those watching) and the
raisers (those playing) are increasing in size. As a poker
insider, I am often asked if I see the rise of poker as a simple
fad that will wane in a few short years. I really believe that
poker has yet to reach the point that will be considered a
baseline in future years. I would estimate that the growth may
slow down in about three to five years, and the number of
players may be holding steady at around 100 million at that
time.
This rise in popularity is illustrated by an example of a local
tournament in which I regularly participate. I started playing
in a neighborhood tournament toward the beginning of 2004, which
was hosted in two adjoining living rooms in a duplex. The game
had a $20 buy-in with no rake (the rake is the amount reserved
as payment for those who host or manage the gameand it is what
makes poker illegal in most places). At that time, twenty-four
people came to play in the game and take their chances at
finishing in the top five places to win a couple hundred
dollars. The game is held about once each month and new faces
arrived each and every month. One year later, in January of
2005, this group of friends had to use the multi-purpose room of
a local business to host 114 players that arrived to play in the
same level of game ($20 buy-in, no rake). Over four times the
number of players in just one year of growth.
Holdem was mainly covered only on ESPN until just a few years
ago, and during those early years the game received only
infrequent airtime for one hour episodes of the World Series of
Poker main event. Early into 2005, it already appears that at
least five different networks will host holdem shows sometime
this year. Examples include: the Travel Channel (World Poker
Tour), ESPN (World Series of Poker), FOX Sports (the Poker
Superstars Invitational), NBC (National Heads-up Championship),
E! (E! Hollywood Home Game), and Bravo (Celebrity Poker
Showdown). The vast majority of these shows consist of many
weekly episodes; several, in fact, have more than ten new
episodes planned for 2005. As the above examples illustrate,
most of the major media conglomerates have adopted some form of
show about the most popular game, Texas Holdem. And believe me,
they are looking for more opportunities.
It appears that the sport has established itself as a contender
for regular airtime on national networks going forward. Its rise
into the public eye rivals the television rise of other
professional sports. An appropriate comparison, in my opinion,
would be the climb in popularity and the resultant paychecks on
the PGA Tour over the last decade, particularly the heavy
increases in popularity following the appearance of a young
superstar by the name of Tiger Woods. The baseline of the PGA
audience and prize pools has been re-established during this
time. Holdem should see similar results.
So, while the incredible growth rate cannot be expected to
continue indefinitely, it appears that the new plateau has not
been reached. Just look at the sports most popular event for an
illustration. The main event ($10,000 entry) at the 2003 WSOP
had 839 entrants when Chris Moneymaker took home $2.5 million
for first place. Just one year later, the main event of the 2004
WSOP boasted well over 2,500 players (Greg Raymer won first
place and $5 million). Most of the people who follow poker on a
regular basis expect that there will be at least 6,000 entrants
in the main event of the 2005 WSOP.
All signs seem to point to a continued increase in the game
until it becomes big enough to be considered a part of our daily
lexicon. While there may be a component of the population that
has adopted or viewed this as a fad, it does not appear to be
the perspective of the millions of railbirds and raisers that
enjoy the skill and competition of the game itself.