FA Cup Third Round - Back The Top 30 At Home
An effective strategy is to back all the top 30 teams, i.e.
those in the Premiership and top 10 of the Championship, against
sides from outside the top 30. This obvious approach of backing
the stronger teams in the country against weaker opponents has
produced a win rate in excess of 70%.
This equates to odds of approximately 2/5 and there is added
value in this strategy if that average is exceeded by the coupon
odds on all the top 30 teams with a home tie against opposition
from outside the top 30.
In the Cup, many of the big teams are offered at much shorter
odds than 2/5, so this is a high staking strategy which will
appeal to the "big hitters" more than the average punter, but it
is a strategy that works.
In the 2003/04 season, the top 30 sides had a total of 15 home
matches against teams from outside the top 30 during the FA Cup.
They were as follows:
Third Round Millwall @ 1.91 vs Walsall. Result: 2-1 Portsmouth @
1.32 vs Blackpool. Result: 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur @ 1.51 vs
Crystal Palace. Result: 3-0 Sunderland @ 1.42 vs Hartlepool.
Result: 1-0 Middlesbrough @ 1.23 vs Notts County. Result: 2-0
Ipswich @ 1.56 vs Derby County. Result: 3-0 Fulham @ 1.15 vs
Cheltenham. Result: 2-1
Replays: Bolton @ 1.36 vs Tranmere. Result: 1-2 AET Wolves @
1.23 vs Kidderminster. Result: 2-0 Chelsea @ 1.15 vs Watford.
Result: 4-0
Fourth Round Portsmouth @ 1.23 vs Scunthorpe. Result: 2-1
Birmingham @ 1.33 vs Milton Keynes. Result: 1-0
Fifth Round Millwall @ 1.79 vs Burnley. Result: 1-0 Sheffield
Utd @ 1.41 vs Colchester. Result: 1-0
Quarter Final Millwall @ 1.56 vs Tranmere. Result: 0-0
As you can see, 13 of the 15 matches produced wins for the
higher positioned teams with two matches ending as a draw after
90 minutes. Using the above odds as a guide and