Affymetrix 3rd Quarter 2005
Affymetrix stumbles again. They produced another ruff quarter,
and reduced their forecast for next quarter.
It appears to us that Affymetrix is holding, or even possibly
increasing its market share. They described the problem with the
quarter as an issue with capacity being restrained in its new
products.
Affymetrix is riding a double growth curve. They benefit from
Moore's Law through a rapid increase in the density of their
gene chips, and the application space is also growing at a great
rate placing them, in my opinion, as the most valuable position
in the genomic market.
If $10-20 million of demand is not being filled for each of the
two most recent quarters due to capacity being restrained, that
means possibly early next year Affymetrix might have 10-20
million over and above its normal demand.
In my internal modeling, Affymetrix is still gaining control in
the genomic space. This gives me confidence that their shortfall
is a transitional issue. For most high growth companies that I
have followed, almost all have demonstrated some kind of
transition problems.
It appears our original reports were correct and the company
has many of what we believe to be monopolistic advantages. Pease
refer to Affymetrix "Seeds of Change in DNA/Genomics's (AFFX -
$21.17) available at [url]http://www.durig.com[/url]
The leading company that helps to develop many of the hidden
values of the genomic research into the main street market has
tremendous potential. It appears that AFFX is the leader of this
very large migration.
Since I last reviewed the company, Affymetrix added close to
twenty software companies building on their genome standard. In
my modeling, this is a very important feature. This tells me
that many software companies, in their effort to grow their own
sales, believe that building on the Affymetrix standard will
help them achieve their software goals,
This increases the moat around Affymetrix or barriers to
completion, and down the road should help accelerate Affymetrix
business.
We offer complimentary email @ research services
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Randy Durig currently owns Affymetrix and holds it in his
monopoly technology portfolio Past performance is not a
guarantee for future returns.