Free Cash Flow: A Simple Indicator of a Company's Health
One of the best indicators of corporate health is the Free Cash
Flow (FCF) of a company and, unlike some other indicators, it is
relatively easy to understand.
Think of FCF as the deposit you put in a savings account after
paying your regular monthly bills. If this deposit keeps
increasing, you should feel pretty good about the state of your
finances. On the other hand, if your deposit starts shrinking or
if you need to dip into your savings account just to tread
water, you know some serious financial problems may be lurking
just around the corner.
Corporations operate in much the same manner. First, like a
paycheck, they generate cash from operating the business. This
is called Operating Cash Flow (OCF). From this, they subtract
their Capital Expenditures. Capital expenditures are expenses
for capital equipment and other physical property, like real
estate. What's left over is their free cash flow.
The FCF can be used for several purposes, including paying a
dividend, buying back stock, lowering debt, or saving for future
acquisitions. Without FCF, a company will find it hard to grow
its business without issuing new debt or diluting the stock.
Except for start up corporations that will often show negative
cash flow in their beginning years, free cash flow is a good
indicator of a company's ability to both maintain and increase
its operations.
Remember, because cash flow analysis puts business activity on a
"cash" basis, it can uncover problems even if a company reports
positive earnings per share. Krispy Kreme is a recent example of
this. Manipulation of earnings is frequent problem on Wall
Street and FCF can help keep everyone more honest.
This isn't to say that FCF, itself, is not without problems. If
a company refuses to replace aging equipment, free cash flow can
be overstated. Of course, once the equipment is replaced, cash
flow may take a violent dive. This, by itself, is a red flag
indicating potential danger.
Some investors like to set up various ratios using FCF. By
dividing free cash flow per share by the company's current price
per share, you'll get a "free cash flow yield." This is useful
in comparing companies in the same industry. The higher the
yield, the more favorable the stock.
Other investors solve for the "price to free cash flow
multiple." Here, you divide the share price by the free cash
flow per share. This is somewhat similar to the familiar P/E
ratio and, like the P/E ratio, you are looking for lower numbers.
If you simply want to skip all this, go to MSN Money on the
internet and click on "Stocks.' From there, go to "Statements"
under "Financial Results." Then, go to the "Cash Flow"
statement. At the bottom of the page, you'll see that MSN has
done a lot of this work for you.
Happy Hunting.
If you have any questions or comments, Chip would love to hear
from you. You may contact him by email at
dahlkefinancial@sbcglobal.net. You may also contact him at the
Living Trust Network. It's URL is
htt://www.livingtrustnetwork.com.
Copyright 2005. Living Trust Network, LLC. All Rights Reserved.