Market Timing Discipline, Not As Easy As You Thought...
Market timing discipline means controlling impulses and
controlling emotions. When emotions rule our trading, loses are
usually the result.
This is why successful market timers follow a thoroughly tested
timing strategy. One that has been used in all kinds of markets,
including bull, bear and sideways markets.
As many novice market timers can tell you, however, maintaining
discipline is often easier said than done.
Usually the first problem arises when the markets are between
market trends. Possibly you had a nice profit during a rally,
but now the market is trading sideways and has generated several
small false signals. There is now no trend, or one is certainly
not obvious.
You were strong the first couple of signals, making all the
trades, but after a couple of small losses, you are starting to
second guess the timing strategy.
Self-Doubt Arises
Just as the vast majority of market participants are driven by
fear and greed, many new market timers find it difficult to
avoid succumbing to self-doubt and panic.
Market timing is challenging in that we often take positions
"against" the prevailing sentiment of most traders. It also has
times when false signals are generated. But a good strategy does
not stick with the false signal. it changes and protects capital
from large losses.
If those small losses are worrying you, don't let them. Losses
are part of trading with "all" successful strategies. Small
losses are acceptable. Large ones are not.
And remember this, sideways markets are almost always either a
base, or a top, and are followed by the next profitable trend.
If you do not take all the trades, how will be sure to take the
one that generates all the profits?
Invariably, the trade you skip, is the big profit maker. The one
that starts the next huge trend. And there is "always" a next
trend. In fact, 200 years of trading history shows the markets
are in a trend 80% of the time. That 20% in between can be
rough, but soon the next trend will begin.
Discipline is key. It is vital to take whatever steps are
necessary to maintain discipline and take every trade.
Markets Are Unpredictable In Short Timer Frames
The markets are chaotic and unpredictable in short time frames.
The current volatility being a perfect example. When faced with
an uncertain set of circumstances, it is easy to see why market
timers may, at times, feel unsure and unsettled.
Timers follow strategies that provide entry and exit signals
based on timing strategies designed to be profitable over time.
Strategies that are also designed to protect their capital
during the inevitable sideways markets. "The more structure you
have to follow, the less uncertain and unorganized you'll feel.
You will know what to do and when to do it."
But no timer can know with certainty how any "one" buy or sell
decision will play out. Some market timers thrive on the
excitement, but many find it disconcerting.
The best way to combat feelings of uncertainty is by following a
trading plan. If one trades with a detailed trading plan, such
as the strategies offered at FibTimer.com, he or she will impose
structure onto an unstructured reality.
The more structure you have to follow, the less uncertain and
unorganized you'll feel. You will know what to do and when to do
it.
The markets may seem at times like a mass of confusion, but you
can address it by following a strategy that actually uses the
volatility of the markets to generate timing signals.
Optimistic Yet Realistic
One's mood and attitude is another factor that impacts the
ability to maintain discipline. An optimistic yet realistic
attitude is vital to maintain market timing success.
Market timing often places you at odds with the current market
sentiment. It is understandably hard to feel optimistic when
your position is at odds with the majority.
Many market timers struggle with trying to maintain a positive
or at least neutral mood.
It takes practice.
Emotions And Decision Making
Maintaining discipline is vital for market timing success. It
can be extremely difficult at times, especially in sideways
(non-trending) markets.
The best way to be disciplined is to stick to your timing
strategy and keep your emotions and impulses under control.
Take a look at the trading history of the strategy you are
following. Every timing strategy at FibTimer has a "Trading
History" link. You will see times when it generated losses. On
paper they seem insignificant. But when they occurred,
subscribers had difficulty making the trades.
Now look at the results of the trading strategy after a year.
Two years. Three years. Those small losses did not stop the
strategies from being very profitable. This important fact will
help you to stay the course and make all of the trades.
Only by maintaining discipline can you realize long term success
timing the markets.