How To Tell If Your Amazing New Product Idea Is Really Worth Gambling On

Q: I have a great idea for an amazing new product. There is nothing like it on the market and no competition that I can find. I think it will be a huge success and so does everyone I tell the idea to. I'm willing to bet the farm on this one. What do you think my chances of success are? A: I'm a lousy poker player, mainly because I can't help grinning like the village idiot when blessed with a winning hand or frowning like a sad clown when dealt a dud. I also never make odds on the success of "amazing new products" because more often than not the only thing that's amazing is the way the product is totally ignored by the buying public. In my software business there have been times when we came up with what we thought was an amazing idea for an amazing piece of software - a piece of software so amazing, in fact, that we knew that all mankind would sit up and take notice, then line up to write us checks. After hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars spent developing the product we were amazed to find that the only people who thought the software was truly amazing was us. We made mankind yawn. Quite an amazing accomplishment, if I do say so myself. It worries me that you say there is nothing like your idea on the market. While you may think that is a good thing, it might actually mean that there is no market for your product. The same holds true for a lack of competition. A total lack of competition might mean that there is no demand for such a product. Rarely does a product come along that revolutionizes an industry. Rarer still does a product create a new industry on its own. So, how can you tell if your amazing new product really is worth gambling on? The truth is, you can never be 100% certain that your idea will sell. No matter how enamored you are of it or how much your friends rave about it, the success of a new idea depends on a number of factors, many of which are beyond your control. Such factors include: