Ness Notes (Feb 3)
George Washington must like its lofty ranking (No. 10) as the
Colonials made a nice second-half comeback last night to win at
Xavier for the first time in a decade (89-86). The Colonials are
now 17-1 and ranked in the top-10 for this first time in 50
years. They are also one of 10 Division I schools (they are 7-0
in they A-10), still unbeaten in conference play. Heading into
last night's action there were 11 unbeatens but Cal-Irvine (now
8-1) lost 64-52 at Pacific, the two-time defending Big West
champs. Northern Arizona of the Big Sky stayed unbeaten at 8-0,
by edging Portland State 65-63.
My free play for Friday is the LA Clippers over the Boston
Celtics at 7:35 ET. I have just one play for Friday, my 10*
Western Conference Game of the Month in the NBA. Get it NOW!
At the other end of the 'food chain', James Madison dropped to
0-11 in the CAA by losing at home to Georgia St 77-53, Idaho
fell to 0-8 in the WAC by losing at Hawaii 81-61 and Texas St to
0-7 in the Southland Conference by losing at home 68-60 to SE
Louisiana. Tonight's eight-game college basketball card features
Penn (2-0 in the Ivy league) hosting Brown and 0-4 Dartmouth
visiting Cornell.
The Heat ended the Cavaliers' seven-game winning streak with a
101-73 romp in Thursday's NBA. The Heat had a 22-0 run in the
first half and a 19-1 run in the 4th quarter. The Spurs edged
the Warriors in Oakland 89-86, moving San Antonio (37-10) a
half-game ahead of the Mavericks for the league's second-best
record. Friday night's NBA schedule features eight games,
including an ESPN doubleheader. The 76ers host the Pistons at
8:05 ET and the T-wolves visit the Blazers at 10:35 ET.
The Pistons own the league's best record at 38-6 and are 17-4 SU
(13-8 ATS) on the road. The 76ers will be playing without A.I.
for the 4th straight game. Philly beat Orlando and New York
without Iverson but lost to Phoenix, 123-99. Detroit is favored
by 10 with a total of 182 1/2.
Minnesota is 2-2 since its seven-player trade with Boston and
while newcomers Davis (16.5), Banks (14.5) and Blount (11.5) are
all averaging in double-digits, the T-wolves' 91.3 PPG average
is better than just FOUR other teams. However, Portland is one
of those teams, as the Blazers are averaging a league-low 89.1
PPG. That being said, Portland is 6-4 SU (7-2-1 ATS) over its
last 10 games, with just one of the four losses coming by more
than six points. Minnesota is a three-point favorite with a
total of 182 1/2.
Super Bowl XL is FINALLY here! The Steelers will try and become
the FIFTH wild card team (that includes the 1969 KC Chiefs) to
win a Super Bowl in nine tries. However, the Steelers are the
FIRST wild card team to be favored, as Pittsburgh enters the
weekend as a solid four-point choice with a total of 47.
Seattle, will be trying to win its first-ever Super Bowl in the
franchise's first-ever appearance. Seattle head coach, Mike
Holmgren, can become the first to win Super Bowl titles with two
different teams. He's already joined Bill Parcells, Dan Reeves,
Don Shula and Dick Vermeil as the only head coaches to have led
two different teams to the big game.
Should Pittsburgh, the AFC's No. 6 seed, really be favored over
Seattle, the NFC's No. 1 seed? Sure it should. The AFC was the
much stronger conference and while Pittsburgh won road games at
Cincinnati (No. 3 seed), Indy (No. 1 seed) and Denver (No. 2
seed) in the postseason, Seattle was able to play at home versus
Washington (No. 6 seed) and then Carolina (No. 5 seed). On top
of that, Seattle caught Washington playing its third straight on
the road and Carolina playing its fourth straight on the road.
Pittsburgh's the correct favorite, now let's see who wins?
This year's postseason has seen all 10 SU winners also win their
games ATS. Is that trend is likely to continue in the Super
Bowl? Taking a look at past Super Bowls, the favorite has gone
27-11 SU with the 49ers beating the Bengals in SB XVI, in the
only game listed as a 'pick'.
The 38 previous Super Bowl favorites are 19-16-2 ATS, not
counting Super Bowl XIII. Of course that was the "infamous"
Pittsburgh win over Dallas, in which the line was anywhere from
Pittsburgh 3 1/2-to-4 1/2, with the Steelers winning 35-31! The
two 'pushes' were SB XXXI (GB minus-14 over NE 35-21) and SB
XXXIV (StL minus- 7 over Tenn 23-16).
Of the 16 underdogs that have covered, 11 have won the game
outright! Underdogs have gone 6-2-2 ATS over the last 10 Super
Bowls, including covering the last four! Of those six underdog
pointspread winners, THREE have won outright.
Super Bowls tend NOT to be close games, as 30 of the 39 previous
games have been decided by seven points or more. Looking deeper,
25 have been decided by margins of at least 10 points and 21 by
margins of 14 points or more. Checking out the Super Bowl total,
we find this. Super Bowl I had no posted total but the 38 games
since have seen 19 games 'over', 18 games go 'under' and one
game end in a 'push' (that was SB XXXIII).
Super Bowl totals began very low in the early years with only
Super Bowls II and III (43 and 40), having totals as high as 40
over the first 15 years. From Super Bowl IV through Super Bowl
XV, all 12 totals were in the 30s with EIGHT of the games going
under. The first posted total of higher than 50 was in Super
Bowl XIX, at 53 1/2. That game ended with San Francisco beating
Miami, 38-16. There have been six Super Bowl totals of more than
50 points, with those games going 2-3-1 against the 'over'.
Sunday's total is 47 and it should be noted that of the last 24
Super Bowl games with a posted total of less than 50, 16 have
gone 'over'!
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