FBR Open: Tiger To Buy Florida?

Phil Mickelson choked a couple times, Jose Maria Olazabal made a great shot from the sand then choked a short putt in extras, Tiger Woods won. I was going to bet the ranch---three units on Tiger---and forego a head-to-head bet. Some little lingering voice had me split the outright, though. I went with Mickelson, too, and put two units on a head-to-head. It was not the first tournament that little voice cost me. How many times do we need to see Tiger eat his competition to realize once and for all that they don't have a chance if he's at or near the 54-hole lead? I won't say I'm going to take him in every tournament he plays for the rest of 2006, because he could get hurt or something else unforeseen might happen. Otherwise, I have to pick him each time he plays the rest of the way in 2006. Here's why: He's going to play 20 or so Tour events this year. In a decade on Tour he's averaged a little less than five wins a year. In 2000, he won nine times in 21 events. If he's better now after the swing adjustments of the last couple years, he could win half the tournaments he plays. Vegas usually has him in the 3-1, 5-2 range (5-2 on the outright last week). So if he wins half his tourneys, the short odds still compare favorably to 2-1. You can still make money. At this point, wagering on Tiger is like having medical insurance: it costs too much, you might be able to get by without it for stretches, but ultimately you have to have it. Every time Tiger wins a tournament people tend to get carried away. He's going to sweep the majors! He's going to win out from here! He's going to marry five more hot Swedes! He might buy Florida! All you had to do was see him stare down the competition last week to get carried away. I'm carried away, I'm betting on him. Moving on. This week the Tour moves to Arizona for the FBR Open. Mickelson may have had his best chance to win early in the season, as he likes to do, back at the Bob Hope. After last week's frustrating T8, in Scottsdale he'll have to contend with Vijay Singh, who returns after a two-week break from the Tour, which for Vijay is a vacation of King George length. You have to like Singh this week, but there are some hot golfers out there right now. Three of them are playing this week. I like their chances and I like their odds ... This Week Up over 2K already this season, Brian's Church of Golf is in full swing and on the money this week at the FBR Open! Grab all 3 of Brian's longshot winners plus his patented weekly Head-to-Head Best Bet! Get the Winners Free with any Subscription to Brian Gabrielle Sports! Jeremy Church covers the PGA for Brian Gabrielle Sports