Super Bowl News and Notes
As I enter my 14th Super Bowl selection as a professional
handicapper (10-3 ATS over that span), it still amazes me how
popular of a wagering event it is, as both national TV exposure
and plenty of hype, even out of Las Vegas ,and offshore with all
the exotic wagers, brings bettors out of the woodwork. With many
of these exotic wagers, it is clean-up time for Las Vegas books
and offshore books as well, with more losers than winners from
the betting public. I thought I would touch on the game itself
and some trends over the years to highlight, because we all know
this is the biggest thing in sports every year, and there is
some money to be made on the final game of the NFL this season
without question.
When it comes to prop bets, there is ample opportunity to make
some cash. In the past 2 years I have won all 6 prop bets on the
past 2 Super Bowls, and those wagers are one which you CAN
handicap and the hold merit. Rushing yards over and unders for
specific players, number of field goals over and unders, scoring
in quarters, and others like those all have a proven track
record of stats and numbers to work with from the season. Bets
like heads or tails on the coin flip, and other exotic wagers I
tend to stay away from, and grab opportunity with real "meat and
potatoes" type wagers that provide opportunity, I suggest you do
the same.
The Game- You have 2 teams and 2 coaches here that are rock
solid football teams. This match-up should provide some
fireworks in terms of excitement and scoring. Both teams have
something to prove and both coaches also have something to
prove. Bill Cowher is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and
the one thing missing from his eventual appearance in Canton
Ohio at the Hall of Fame is a Super Bowl win under his belt. Of
course on the other side of the field you have Mike Holmgren,
who has went to 2 Super Bowls as a head coach (he won 2 rings as
an assistant at SF), and is 1-1, but no coach has ever won a
Super Bowl, as a head coach of 2 different teams, although it
has been attempted, and Bill Parcells most recently comes to
mind. A battle of elder statesmen in terms of coaching tenure
and experience, and both coaches have plenty of weapons on both
sides of the ball to create some game strategy. It should be a
real chess match on Sunday night.
The Steelers- Pittsburgh under Bill Cohwer has always been about
a tough minded, physical game. The ground game is their bread
and butter and we all know it, but they used QB Rothlesburger as
their main weapon in both the Colts and Bronco's win,
establishing early on their were not going to try to ram in down
their throats, but mix it up and keep a wide open offensive
attack from the start, which I felt really threw a wrench into
both those opponents gameplan. The Steelers also blitzed a great
deal on defense and brought their safety's up in run support
while playing man-you-man in coverage, and while that can burn
you, neither Peyton Manning or Jake Plummer could overcome the
pressure, nor did their offensive lines. I look for them to come
out again, balance the attack and continue to use a pressure
defense.
The Seahawks-Seattle is playing up the "no respect" angle, but I
assure you that Pittsburgh knows they are good. Whenever you run
the ball as well as Shawn Alexander does (over 1800 yards), and
league MVP, you have everyone's attention in the NFL, because a
great running game means a great offensive line, and it means
keeping defense's honest to stop the run. The one thing you
should know is Mike Holmgren likes to create mis-matches in
terms of his personnel, and score points with those mis-matches,
and I think he is a great playcaller as a coach. In terms of
Seattle as a whole, QB Hasselbeck's rise as a star is due to
this, because they do not have a world class receiver on this
team, but guys that make plays. They led the NFL in scoring, but
were mediocre on defense, but as always, if you cannot shut them
down, outscore them, and that what is what Seattle has done to
land themselves in this game.
In the last 10 Super Bowls, the favorite, in this case
Pittsburgh, have went 2-6-2 ATS against the opening line, and
the last 4 Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal, many
of them Adam Venatari's! Many of the past 39 Super Bowls have
been one sided games, but with the recent parity levels in the
NFL, we have seen some good ones over the past 4 or 5 years.
Both teams enter this game with an impressive 2005 resume, and
the Steelers beating the #1 through the #3 seeds all on the road
to get here is most impressive, but do they have enough gas in
the tank with a 4th straight road game, while Seattle enjoyed
dominance at home? Time will tell this Sunday. In terms of
scoring, no one knows the game plan here except for players and
coaches, but in the past 10 years, the overs have a slight edge
at 5-4-1 ATS. I think bolth teams will score, but in big games,
experienced coaches stress defesne, and the team who plays it
the best on Sunday will wein in my opinion, and both teams are
capable.