Super Bowl XL
This is it: Super Bowl Sunday! The old adage "You win the
turnover battle, you win the game," is especially true come
playoff time. Looking back at last season's game, we find that
the Patriots won the turnover battle 4-1, largely because of
three Donovan McNabb interceptions. The Pats won the game 24-21,
though they failed to cover. The year before, the Patriots and
Panthers were even in the turnover department, 1-1. New England
won again, 32-29, but failed to cover. Before that the Bucs had
a huge edge in turnovers and destroyed the Raiders as a dog,
48-21, and before that the Patriots were a 14-point dog but won
the turnover battle 3-0 in upsetting the Rams, 20-17.
Overall, the turnover department is huge. So who has the edge
this Sunday? The Steelers are +7 on the season in turnovers, and
the Seahawks are +9. Not much of a difference. In the payoffs,
the Steelers won the turnovers battle +2 in their win at
Cincinnati, and repeated that in a 34-17 rout at Denver in the
AFC Championship game with a +4 edge in turnovers. However, they
were minus-2 against the Colts, yet won the game 21-18. Seattle
won the turnover battle in the NFC Championship rout of Carolina
(+4), but were actually minus-2 against the Redskins, but still
prevailed, 20-10.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this week's Super Bowl
preparation has been the war of words. Seattle TE Jerramy
Stevens made the cardinal sin of dissing the enemy this week,
saying about RB Jerome Bettis, "It's a heartwarming story and
all that, but it will be a sad day when he leaves without that
Super Bowl trophy." Oops! Big mistake. Seattle coaches no doubt
took him aside and told him to keep his trap shut. The last
thing anyone should do before a big game is give verbal fodder
to fire up the opposition.
Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter responded by saying that the
Steelers will be so physical in the Super Bowl they will try to
make Seattle quit playing. Them sounds like fightin' words,
pardner! Porter said, "We're going to try to tap out as many
people as we can. We're going to try to send as many people to
the sideline as we can." Someone is going to look like a hero on
Sunday night, saying the opponent fired them up.
Rest assured, players and coaches seize on stuff like this. I
recall five years ago when the Steelers were a double digit
favorite in the AFC Championship game over the Patriots and made
comments about how they already had their bags packed for the
Super Bowl. After the Patriots' 24-17 upset win, the New England
players all spoke about how they were incensed that the Steelers
would talk like that.
Added Porter, "Tell him he's soft. He's a tight end and I've
never, ever been afraid of a tight end. They better not make him
block me on Sunday. I bet they're not going to make that
coaching mistake." Wow! You don't usually hear trash talk like
that the week of the Super Bowl.
Perhaps the most important thing to assess before this game is
that the Seahawks have been outstanding at home the last few
years, but mediocre on the road. Even this season they were 5-3
on the road, winning both playoff games at home. They have a
significant edge at home partly because it's a long road trip
for opponents to Seattle, and also because of their 12th man --
their raucous fans. That home field caused more opponents to be
called for false starts than at any other venue in the NFL this
season. That's also an edge the Seahawks won't be bringing to
Detroit on Sunday. And they'll be facing a tough, Pittsburgh
team that just dispatched Cincinnati, Indy and Denver - all on
the road! If Seattle wins this title, they will have to earn it
without those edges. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.