Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Preview
The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament kicks off on Tuesday, one
of two tourneys getting underway early. The OVC regular season
was won by Murray St. who ran away with the crown by three games
over Samford as the Racers put together a ten-game winning
streak to lock up the title. They are clearly the hottest team
coming in but the other seven teams finished the season
separated by just five games with the 2nd through 7th seeds
separated by only three games.
The logjam in the middle means that anyone could challenge the
Racers but the big question is whether or not anyone can
actually create that challenge. One of Murray St.'s losses came
at Eastern Illinois, a team that didn't qualify for the
postseason, leaving only Samford and Tennessee Tech as the other
two teams to hand the Racers a conference loss. Samford closed
the season with losses in four of its last six games so there is
not a whole lot of momentum behind the Bulldogs.
Tennessee Tech was in the hunt midway through the season but the
Golden Eagles also limped in with losses in six of their final
10 games. With the exception of Murray St.. Jacksonville St. is
the hottest team entering the postseason with seven wins in its
final 10 games. The Gamecocks locked down the 4th seed and in
this tournament that is huge since the top four seeds all host
the first round games on their home courts. The problem with
Jacksonville St. is that of the four home teams, it has the
worst home record.
Eastern Kentucky travels to Jacksonville to take on the
Gamecocks and could be the most dangerous road team on Tuesday
as it had the best road mark of the four traveling squads.
Tennessee St. and Austin Peay finished close behind with their
road records but those two will be facing Samford and Tennessee
Tech who went 9-3 and 11-3 at home respectively. The Racers are
the only double digit favorite in the opening round and that is
no surprise as the other three games involve the six teams who
can win on any given night.
Murray St. was the only OVC team to go undefeated at home in
conference games but after Tuesday, that won't be a factor.
However, what will be a factor is that the Racers had the best
road record of the conference teams as well. Samford,
Jacksonville St. and Tennessee-Martin are the only three teams
that finished in the black against the number with the Skyhawks
being the only team getting points on Tuesday.
The four Tuesday winners head to Nashville on Friday for the
semifinal round followed by the championship game on Saturday.
It's a neutral court for all teams as the final three games will
be held at the Gaylord Entertainment Center in Nashville.
Key Trends:
Tennessee-Martin is 14-28 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more
points since 1997. Murray St. is 5-16 ATS off a home win over
the last 2 seasons. Eastern Kentucky is 17-6 ATS in road games
after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997. Jacksonville St.
is 12-3 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this
season. Tennessee St. is 15-4 ATS in road games revenging a home
loss vs. opponent since 1997. Samford is 9-2 under in home games
after scoring 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Austin
Peay is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.
Tennessee Tech is 16-6 ATS after one or more consecutive overs
since 1997.