It was the best of picks, it was the worst of picks.

Wait, no. It was just the best of picks.

I had Washington State over UCLA getting six points at home last week, and things looked pretty sweet early in the fourth quarter, with the Cougars up 38-21. Then the Bruins went crazy and sent the game to OT. Did I mention I got six points? On my knees begging for a field goal, pleading against a push, the gambling gods rewarded me when the amazing Maurice Drew countered a Washington State field goal with a one-yard TD plunge. UCLA wins, Washington State covers, and I change underpants.

So why am I turning things around and taking UCLA this week?

I mean, hey, didn't Oregon State, UCLA's opponent this week, actually kind of crush Wazzou three weeks ago? If Washington State's good enough to take the Bruins to OT, by the tenets of cyclical logic the Beavers should upset the Bruins outright this Saturday night in L.A., right? Well, wrong. I guess no one really believes that thought pattern. Following that logic, there's probably some Six-Degrees-Of-Kevin-Bacon by which USC should lose to Montclair High School. But my point is: Oregon State is better than Washington State, UCLA struggled against Washington State, so shouldn't Oregon State present an even bigger challenge?

Maybe. The dominant storyline in this game will be the return of QB Matt Moore to the Rose Bowl, where just a couple years ago he was fighting with Bruin QB Drew Olson to be UCLA's quarterback. When Olson won the competition over his then-roommate, Moore transferred to Oregon State, where he's throwing for nearly 300 a game under coach Mike Riley. He'll have plenty of motivation, and plenty of crowd noise, in the 90,000-seat amphitheater.

The thing is: Washington State was just a terrific matchup against UCLA, because of RB Jerome Harrison, whose 260 yards against the Bruins last week put him over 1,000 for the season in only six games. UCLA's run defense is, in a word, pitiful. As in: fourth-worst in the entire NCAA. And this is an undefeated team? Eesh. However, Oregon State makes its living through the air. Yvenson Bernard is a fine little back, but he's neither as fast nor as quick as Harrison. I'm sure he'll have a good game Saturday. I just don't think he's plastering 260 on the Bruins. And the fact is: UCLA's pass defense is actually pretty good, giving up under 190 yards through the air per game. Of course, part of that is teams don't need to throw against a run defense this bad, but again I say, running is not what the Beavers are set up to do.

The other side of the ball is a bigger mismatch. The Bruins like to throw, throw, and throw, mixing it up with third-best-back-in-the-greater-Los-Angeles-area Maurice Drew, who's got 11 TDs already this season. UCLA averages nearly 275 yards per game through the air, and Oregon State is the second worst team in the nation defending the pass, allowing 331 ypg. That's a recipe for disaster against Karl Dorrell's fling-and-wing offense. I'm still not a believer that UCLA is anywhere near national-title-contender status, but this week represents a good matchup for them, and they've got a lot of haters after the lackluster win in Pullman. I'm taking UCLA (-9.5) over Oregon State, and expecting one heck of a high score. But the Bruins will get untracked early, Olson will outdo his former roommate, and Drew will score a few more times. U-C-L-A! Fight! Fight! Fight!

Christopher Harris is a documented member of The Professional Handicappers League. http://www.procappers.com