The Orioles had a great start to the 2005 Baseball season. At the 40 game mark, they were 26-14 +10 units. Even I thought they could contend with the Yankees and Red Sox for the division. The Yankees were playing bad and the Red Sox looked poised for a letdown. Too bad. But how did their strong start resonate with bettors the rest of the season?

Most people continued betting on them. In fact, they ended the season 48-74 -31 units. Since the initial impression that the Orioles gave to bettors was a good one, they kept betting on them. This was why the odds were never adjusted accordingly.

This is why recent run scoring averages and won-loss records are so vital to baseball betting systems. Teams can go into a funk and you want to start betting against them once you see it but before Vegas odds.

During the past 122 games of the season, the Orioles were overvalued by about 34 points as a favorite. Against American League opponents, they were a dismal 11-18 as a home favorite, -14 units in 29 games. Our lesson from this is to avoid betting on teams in a slump.

It is tough to judge the Baltimore Orioles in the 2006 baseball season. There were no glaring signs of success, only early season success and late season failure for this team. We will just have to see how the 2006 season plays out.

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