The Valley continues to offer up 2 or 3 teams that are playing for NCAA Tourney post season, and 4 teams from the Valley were in bracket buster games this weekend. Creighton continued home dominance with a win over Fresno State, but continue to struggle on the road and are tied for 2nd place in the conference with Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois. The surprise continues to be Wichita State, as the Shockers had to replace 4 starters from last years team, and now sit at 12-4 in conference action and have the lead. They lost a bracket buster game to George Mason on Saturday, however they have a winnable roadie at Drake this week, and then have bottom feeder Illinois State at home this upcoming weekend. With a 7-3 SU road record, look for the Shockers to continue to play great defense and make a run for the regular season title here.
Creighton- 13-1 SU at home is the KEY for the Blue Jays, they need to win every home game they have left to contend here, for their 8th straight post season appearance. The problem is winning on the road, they are 5-6 SU with roadies and have a tough trip to high scoring Southwest Missouri State this weekend, but first a game at home in Omaha against Indiana State, a team they have beaten 69-53 already on the road. If this line is under 11 points, look for a take on Creighton this week in this game, as they dominate people at home in conference.
Wichita State- A national rank of 36th on defense is the Shockers claim to fame here, but they are winning games with great coaching and a team concept. They look for 2 more wins this week against teams they have already beaten, Drake on the road this week will be a tough road to hoe for them, as the Bulldogs are tough at home, and an easy game with Illinois State in Wichita. They have beaten Drake by 23 scoring a season high 85 points in that game, and have beaten Illinois State on the road by 9. After a huge win against Creighton last week in OT, and a 3 point loss to Colonial power George Mason, I see the Shockers going 2-0 this week and holding on to the top spot in the conference. That road trip to Drake is tricky, if they are laying more than 4 points, the dog would be worth a look. I would not be surprised to see a near pick'em game in that one.
Northern Iowa- The Panthers are 1 game behind the Shockers and are off a bracket buster win against #24 Bucknell this weekend, in a wild one. The Panthers biggest black mark this season is 2 losses to rival Creighton, but are 12-2 at home and have Bradley this week at home in Cedar Falls, and a roadie to Southern Illinois this Saturday which will be the game of the week in Missouri Valley without question. If Wichita State should fall either Tuesday or Saturday, both So. Illinois and Northern Iowa could be playing for #1 in Valley in this Saturday tilt, and I would lean towards the Panthers in that one, So. Illinois is struggling right now. The defense of the Panthers is ranked 12th in country allowing less than 60 ppg, and they are scoring 68 ppg overall. The offensive rebounds are deplorable for the Panthers, they need to step it up, especially on the road in that area to contend with the big boys, bottom line.
Southern Illinois- As stated above, it comes down to Northern Iowa at home this Saturday for conference tourney seeding, and a shot at the title here, expect the Saluki's to be ready, although they have REALLY struggled the past 2 weeks. They are 10-2 at home and have the 6th ranked defense in division I hoops. The UNDER may be worth a strong look on Saturday since both So. Illinois and Northern Iowa rank in the Top 12 in defense. It should be a battle. The Saluki's have Evansville on the road this week, and may be laying a huge number in that one, a game they might overlook since they already pounded them by 28 points. The Saluki's are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games, and lost their last 2 straight up, including a bracket buster game to Louisiana Tech this past Saturday at home. I expect them to lose on Saturday to Northern Iowa.
Another great week in this mid-major conference housing some pretty good teams. Look for Bradley (12-1 SU at home and 8-2 ATS) to continue its streak of home wins, they are world beaters at home, and anytime they are laying a small number or getting points they are worth a look. Missouri State is also a capable team and a huge game with Creighton at home this week, so far is their biggest game of the year, they are 17-7 ATS on the year and won a bracket buster game against Milwaukee Wisconsin this weekend. I look for them to give Creighton all they want, and as a small favorite possibly, might be worth a look. Back next week as the conference tourney nears.
Tony is ranked in the Top 10 in the nation in college hoops, look for his 69% ATS record in the Mo Valley to continue to blister the books again this week!
Tony George is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Tony_George.htm