We are moving closer every day to a world influenza pandemic. New cases of bird flu are being discovered in more countries. 80 people worldwide since 2003, who have had close contact with infected birds have died. Scientists fear that when the bird flu virus mutates or mixes with normal influenza viruses then it will be in a form that passes easily from person to person. The 1918 influenza that killed 40-50 million people world wide, started in Kansas and moved around the world within 9 months. And that was without the type of air travel we have today.

Governments around the world are scrambling to prevent this from happening. Billions of dollars in new aid is going for surveillance and reporting of new cases as they happen, prevent them from spreading and stockpiling antivirals in the event it does happen. The medical community is working on new vaccines that may be used on a wide scale in the event of an outbreak. But will all this be enough? High volume production and distribution of a pandemic vaccine could take 6 months or more after the start of a pandemic event. Government reporting of new cases could be delayed long enough for preventive aid from doing any good. New cases in rural areas could go undetected for weeks or months.

Once human transmission is confirmed, containment will be the next big hurdle. As millions become ill, the global economy will start to feel the effects. Transportation, travel, tourism, trade, retail, education will all suffer. Panic could wreck havoc with the world financial markets in short order. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Every hospital in the country will have a shortage of beds, ventilators and staff. In the event of a natural disaster, it is one thing for aid to come from other areas but in the event of a pandemic no one will have the aid or manpower to spare.

The World Bank has estimated that a influenza pandemic lasting a year would cost the global economy $800 billion dollars. How would we recover from that? The economic consequences of a influenza pandemic would be catastrophic. Businesses large and small will be affected by loss of workers, supplies and distribution of goods and services. Some businesses will never recover. Those who do may be missing key employees who died. Economic recovery will be painfully slow.

A flu pandemic would affect some of the world