Why is there a business cycle? Someone once noted that people could tolerate any condition except the possibility of one. This one condition is prolong periods of prosperity. Incredible as it seems, this observation contains more than just a kernel of truth, and helps to explain where we are in our current business cycle.

When the economy starts to recover from a stiff downturn, people are understandably doubtful about the tenacity of the young expansion. They hold back on their discretionary spending and their use of debt. As the upswing continues to gather force, people tend to become less risk averse. You might say that the greed factor becomes more prevalent.

As the upturn ages, people become more confident and think that the expansion will last indefinitely. (This has a similar ring to peoples