New Concerns About Debt and the UK Housing Market
According to recently released UK government statistics, the
number of mortgage repossession orders in England and Wales has
risen by 66% compared with the same three month period in 2004
("Mortgage possession statistics", publ. UK Department for
Constitutional Affairs, 2005). This is equivalent to 20,000
repossession orders over 3 months. The DCA figures are based on
twice yearly statistics produced by the UK's Council of Mortgage
Lenders.
Since the slowdown in house prices in 2004, there has been a
commensurate increase of the number of owners being taken to
court for mortgage arrears, rising by over a half to nearly
30,000. Most regions of the UK experienced a decreased rate of
growth from an average of over 20% at the start of 2004, to just
over 2% at the beginning of 2005. Many economists believe that
that this gloomy economic outlook is not as bad as it seems,
because the underlying economic factors such as unemployment are
still strong, leading to a housing market slowdown rather than a
crunch. Consumer confidence is also high, helped by a Bank of
England reduction in UK interest rates to 4.5% in August.
However, concerns about debt and the housing market still
remain, due to the effects of the five successive interest rate
rises between the period of November 2003, and August 2004. It
should be borne in mind though, that not all court repossession
orders result in a real repossession because the homeowner can
still often negotiate a deal with the lender. However, the CML
has forecast that at least 10,000 homes will be repossessed
before the end of 2005.