Here's what the nets saw today...
Copyright 2005 Larry Swing
To readers of "What the nets saw today...": Many of you may have
missed some of the early articles in the Power Swing Primer
series, but no worries. These articles describe the statistical
probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on
neural net projections, for the next 5-15 days. These are not
holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything
else. These projections are the result of screening for
technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that
have been further screened for value and bullish sector
performance. In other words, the projections are for long
positions. Please, however, read the disclaimer below. This
article is used for educational purposes, as are the Power Swing
Primer articles.
The Fed Funds rate went up, stocks went down, and nothing much
changed yesterday. Again it appears that certain mining and
energy stocks are popping up on the horizon again, along with a
few of the internet names we have tracked previously (NTES
jumped up and showed up on the net screens). Two other names,
one energy name (ARD) and one an internet wedding services
company (KNOT) showed up, but popped up well past their pivots.
KNOT has spent most of its life until just recently as a
Bulletin Board stock, so the length of the model is pretty
small. Both of these are strong earnings growers, but it might
not be wise to chase in this volatile environment. We will
continue to track them and look for other entry points.
We are still a little concerned about commodity pricing (coal
and natural gas) as we are in a period of price consolidation,
but the nets are starting to like energy exploration and mining
stocks again in general. Everything else, however, is a mixed
bag. Even though it appears some insurers (like HRH yesterday)
may have room to move higher. The same conditions apply to some
of the ADRs (like CX, which has moved about 6% since it popped
up on our screens). It is still a very volatile trading
environment, however, so caution is still advised.
Here is the chart of the $COMPQ we promised yesterday, with a
little November 2005 data added in. As you can see (reference
yesterday's charts) the momentum is still slightly negative on a
monthly basis. Perhaps, if the Fed will complete its tightening
phase, there will be room for more upside, but for now, the
downside should also be respected, particularly if the Fed over
does it (which it has done many times in the past).
Here is what the nets saw today:
BAP 21.19/1 84.6% (short trading history and way past it's pivot
based on yesterday's trading...perhaps can be positioned on an
intraday pullback).
NTES 3.39/1 66.7% (again, same problem as with BAP regarding the
pivot, it might be possible to position an intraday pullback)
ECA 3.18/1 88.9%
JH 3.11/162.5%
BVN 2.91/1 83.3%
That's it for now. We are still in a very dicey and indecisive
trading environment. We are continuing to dig out nuggets and
pockets of strength, and as we find them, we will bring them
out. The two mentioned previously that are not in the final
screen list are definitely candidates to follow.
...thanks for the trust you've shown in our team. MrSwing
Trading Team