The Dead Sea - A Sea that is Sadly "Living" up to its Name
A couple of weeks ago, the news headlines mentioned lightly the new "Israel, Arabs agreement to save Dead Sea:"
Jordan , Israel and the Palestinian Authority said they had agreed terms for a feasibility study on transferring water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, to save the world's lowest sea from vanishing.
The two-year study, costing 15 million dollars, will investigate the social and environmental impact of conveying large quantities of water through a 200-kilometer (120-mile) conduit between the two seas.
Following the feasibility study, the project will take around five years to complete. But the project in its second phase involves building power generation and water desalination plants to supply electricity and fresh water to Jordan, Israel and the Palestine.
Ok, so what's in it? If I'm not mistaken, this means the following:
1. If the feasibility study starts now, that is June 2005, it will finish June 2007.
2. If the feasibility study say go, and being optimistic the project starts by Jan 2008.
3. Trusting that funds will not be disturbed like the 'Disi Project Funds' (Arabic), phase one should be ready by 2013.
4. No news when phase two is suppose to finish!
Will the Dead Sea "live" until then?
Well, when the Ein Gedi Spa opened in 1986 to pamper visitors with massages, mud wraps and therapeutic swims, customers walked just a few steps from the main building to take their salty dip in the Dead Sea. Nineteen years later, the water level has dropped so drastically that the shoreline is three-quarters of a mile away. A red tractor hauls customers to the spa's beach and back in covered wagons. See full article by John Ward Anderson, in Washington Post Foreign Service.
The water level of the Dead Sea has declined over 21 m from 1930 to 1997, and alone 12 m in the last 20 years. In less than a century the water level has fallen by approximately 25 m. In the past few years, the water level fell at a rate of 80-100 cm per year, with the average rate of fall accelerating in recent years. As a result, the Dead Sea surface area has shrunk by about 30% in the last 20 years.[source]
At the current rate, the more shallow southern part of the sea will be gone less than 50 years.
Several projects have been proposed over the years to save the Dead Sea, and the one that now seems the most likely to be carried out is that of a pipeline from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea. This plan is not new. Already in the 19th century, when the actual level of the Dead Sea was first measured, plans were developed to use the height difference to create a hydroelectric power plant. Most plans focused on a canal from the Mediterranean to the Dead Sea.
Even though these plans to save the Dead Sea have been well received by many, there are also drawbacks. What will happen if water from the Dead Sea and from the Red Sea are mixed? There are studies that suggest that the Dead Sea would turn white, or even pink. Withdrawing large bodies of water from the Gulf of Aqaba might seriously upset and possibly destroy its already fragile ecosystem. Ecological investigations have only just begun.
And what about the archaeology of the region? One aspect that has received virtually no attention so far is the impact that the construction of a pipeline, let alone a canal, would have on the Wadi Arabah and especially the hill country between the bottom and the eastern plateau, which is an area with a rich history covering every period from Palaeolithic to late Islamic. Hundreds of sites have been found here in a number of surveys, and since the area has still only been partly surveyed, hundreds of sites are still waiting to be discovered. Therefore, regardless of what route the pipeline/canal will take, it is bound to affect tens, maybe hundreds of archaeological sites, many of which have only been recorded in surveys, but never extensively investigated.
Even if the project takes place, there is maybe a 20- to 30-year lifetime for this project because that is how long it will take for the Dead Sea to regain its natural level. On the other hand, when you consider the vast capital costs, the economic and political sense is not clear. Also, because the desalinated water will need to be pumped long distances and to a high altitude to get where it is needed, the cost of the water will be very high.
Countries with less than 500 cubic metres of water per year are described as suffering from scarcity of water. The UK has around 1,500 cubic metres per person, Israel 340, Jordan 140, and the Palestinian Authority only 70.
The Red Sea-Dead Sea canal is expected to generate 850 million cubic metres of drinkable water, almost the existing annual water use of Jordan, which would be divided between Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
The Role of Scenarios in the Dead Sea Project:
The role of scenarios is to create a number of realistic scenarios for possible futures of the Dead Sea Basin. These scenarios will reflect trajectories or future directions that differ from one another and therefore offer leaders and policy makers in the region the opportunity to test present strategies for water management and perhaps develop new ones. The time frame of the scenarios is from 2005 to 2025. Three driving forces were assumed to have an order of magnitude impacts on the system. These were:
1. The level of Cooperation between the three riparian countries;
2. The role agriculture will play in the future; and
3. The type of investment in water related projects
The following are brief summaries of the realistic scenarios. It is worth mentioning here that the scenarios were the result of synthesis and deliberations first amongst the project partners and second of information collected in the Focus group Meetings and from participation in relevant conferences and workshops.
Scenario I Business as Usual
The Middle East in 2025 is reminiscent of the present day situation. This is because after 20 years, very little has changed. The levels of cooperation between Israelis and the Palestinians remains low, plagued by cycles of violence followed by periods of quiet but not real peace. The lack of progress between Israel and the Palestinians affects the levels of cooperation between Jordanians and Israelis as well. Jordan