The Dish: Colts Get Stampeded
I told you so.
All season, I've looked like a turd. I've warned you about the
soft Indianapolis secondary. I've told you that any team relying
on Corey Simon to be at the core of their defensive rebuilding
effort is bound to be disappointed. I've pointed to the
ridiculously easy first-half schedule, and the lucky breaks the
Colts got when late-season opponents like New England and
Jacksonville suffered key injuries the week before Indy played
them. I've picked against them so many times, I'm fairly
certainly every single American living in the 317 area code has,
at some point over the past four months, crank-called my house.
(How are you rednecks getting my number, anyway?) But I stuck to
my guns, and picked the Steelers to win outright last weekend.
Sweet vindication. Finally someone made the Colts look sick. Is
Peyton Manning a very good quarterback? Yes. Are the Colts'
skill players as good as anyone else's skill players? Yes. But
is that defense really one of the league's best? Absolutely,
posit-friggin-tively no. The corners are average. Bob Sanders is
a fine player against the run but couldn't cover Bea Arthur in a
pass pattern. Dwight Freeney is a monster when he's one-on-one
and frankly invisible when he's not (which is the fate of
extremely light defensive ends). No one else on the defensive
line really scares you. It's extremely possible to line up on
both sides of the ball, punch the Colts in the mouth, and rattle
them. Did you see Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne complain on
every single play? That's what comes from Ike Taylor popping you
repeatedly in the mouth.
Indy's problem is the same as it ever was: too much offense, not
enough defense. Too much finesse, not enough muscle. Too much
complexity with the ball, too much vanilla without the ball.
It's a tremendous recipe for regular-season success. But against
very good, physical teams in crunch time?
I told you so.
What do you make of the Colts' downfall? Is Peyton Manning
simply not an accurate and steady enough quarterback to beat
very good teams in big games?
Greg Jorssen, BoDog.com: People already saying that Peyton is
this generation's Dan Marino: a guy that has tremendous talent,
but doesn't have what it takes to get it done when it matters
most. Remember: the University of Tennessee didn't win a
National Championship until the year after Manning left! I don't
think there's any doubt that Peyton's time will come where he
will lead his team to victory in games when it matters most.
Let's remember that people were saying that about Elway for 14
years before he finally won the big one. My biggest concern with
Peyton is not what he can and eventually will do on the field.
It's how he conducts himself after a crushing defeat. He did a
lot of finger-pointing in the post-game interviews, blaming the
loss not on himself but on his offensive line. A lot of "I" and
"they," whereas in Denver, Tom Brady was saying a lot of "we"
after his devastating loss to the Broncos. At the end of the
day, Manning has the heart, definitely has the passion and the
skill. I think his downfall right now is simply that he cares so
much about winning that he simply can't relax out on the field
and get down to simply just playing the game.
I told you those Indy and Seattle lines were too big. What was
the net result of the Indy game, in particular,
handicapping-wise? And how did the books do for the Divisional
Round weekend overall?
GJ, BoDog.com: The Seattle line was perfect, actually: they
closed as a nine-point favorite and won by 10. The Indy result
was a good one for us. At the start of the week the action was
pretty balanced; however, we received a lot of sharp money on
the Colts closer to kickoff which made us big Steeler fans when
the game started. It was a crazy weekend overall, in that
bettors liked the road dog in three out of the four games. With
Pittsburgh winning outright, Seattle covering, Denver winning
outright and three out of the four games' total going Under, the
book had a very strong weekend.
What do you expect in the conference championships, both from a
"real" and gambling perspective?
GJ, BoDog.com: Another strange weekend is coming, in that we
will be cheering on both home favorites. Bettors are still
loving the Panthers, with two-thirds of the handle so far placed
on Carolina to cover +4. As for the Steelers and Broncos, the
action is pretty balanced, with the slight edge on Pittsburgh
covering +3. Both games have bettors believing the score will go
Over the posted totals of 43.5 and 41, respectively. From a real
perspective, I believe that something has to seriously give with
both games. Pittsburgh's road record over the past two years is
15-3 (8-2 this year), and will be matched up against the
Broncos, who are a perfect 9-0 at home. In the NFC, the
Panthers' road record this year is also 8-2, and they're
visiting the unbeaten at home Seattle Seahawks. I think the
Panthers are playing on enough emotion that it will carry them
to the Super Bowl. Their defense is one of the league's best in
stopping the run, and I don't think Seattle has a corner that
can stop Steve Smith. This should be a close one, but am
predicting a Panther upset. As for the AFC, speaking of emotion
how can you not believe the Steelers will continue their
momentum right into the Super Bowl? Their blitzing attack on
Sunday brought down the mighty Colts, and I believe the trend of
upsets in the postseason will carry on. You could very well see
two teams equal the feat of the 1986 Patriots by winning three
straight road games to get into the title game.
Football is certainly dominating my thoughts right now, but with
NCAA Hoops heating up, are the bettors paying any attention yet?
Where do they seem to be putting their money? What do you think
the leading trends will be leading into March?
GJ, BoDog.com: Bettors are paying more attention to the games,
especially now they are in conference play. One trend that is
glaringly obvious thus far is that the once powerhouse
conferences are no longer as dominant as they were in years
past. In the ACC, after Duke there really is no team that can do
any damage this year in the tournament. It's not unrealistic to
think that the Blue Devils can run the table in conference play.
There are no national championship contenders in the Pac 10,
only Florida in the SEC, and of course Texas in the Big 12. The
exceptions to this trend are the Big East and Big 10, which are
incredibly talented at the top of their conferences. We no
longer have the dominant teams we once had, which leads one to
believe that parity is quite evident in college hoops, more than
ever before. I mean, think about it. When was the last time you
can remember Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky all losing on
the same night, and all on their home courts? All this will make
for a wild March Madness tournament, where we'll see a
tremendous amount of upsets.