Ness Notes (Jan 14)
The NFL's "rematch weekend" gets underway on Saturday at 4:30 ET
with Washington at Seattle and follows at 8:00 ET with New
England at Denver. Sunday's games are Pittsburgh at
Indianapolis, followed by Carolina at Chicago.
The four Divisional Round games are all rematches from the
regular season. The same situation occurred last year in this
round and the SU winner of the regular season meeting was able
to win the playoff rematch, each time. The only team to not
'cover' in its win, was the Steelers, who beat the Jets 20-17 in
OT as a nine-point favorite. Will it be deja vu all over again?
My free play for Saturday is in college hoops and I'm taking USC
over Washington State in a game that tips at 8:00 ET. BOTH of my
NFL plays are available right now, my 20* Divisional GOY and my
latest LEGEND Play (14-2 in FB '05!). College BKB fans, I'm
following my 20* Pac-10 GOY winner on Washington (Thursday) with
my 20* WCC Game of the Year, on Saturday. I've got more CBB and
NBA action for Saturday, so be sure to check the site after 9:00
ET.
Washington at Seattle
The storyline of this game is Washington, a No. 6 seed, enters
this game with the longest current winning streak of any 2005
playoff team, having won SIX straight games both SU and ATS. The
number six is relevant to Seattle as well, as that's the exact
number of playoff losses the Seahawks have suffered since the
team's last playoff win in 1984. Three of those playoff losses
have come under Mike Holmgren, including two at home!
The Seahawks lost at home 20-17 to Miami in 1999, they lost in
OT at Green Bay (33-27) in 2003 and last year, lost at home to
St Louis by the score of 27-20. That loss was particularly tough
to take, as Seattle lost all three games in 2004 to the Rams. Is
this the year the Seahawks finally win?
If not here, then when? The Seahawks are one of two NFL teams to
have gone 8-0 at home this year (6-2 ATS) and at 13-3, own the
NFC's best record. However, Seattle played just five games this
season against opponents with a record of .500 or better, going
3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS.
The wins came in non-covers against the Cowboys and Giants plus
against an Indy team in Week 16, which played few of its
starters and was recovering from the news of Dungy's son's
death. Seattle lost at Jacksonville and Washington.
Washington has basically won six consecutive "do-or-die" games
and one has to wonder if Joe Gibbs' team will be "out of gas."
History is surely not on Washington's side, as since 1990
(12-team format), just NINE of 30 No. 6 seeds have won their
wildcard games. Of those nine winners, NONE have won in the
divisional round (average loss was by 33.7-13.6 PPG).
Is history about to change? It already has, as BOTH No. 6 seeds
(Pittsburgh and Washington) won their first-round games for the
first time ever!
New England at Denver
Will Denver be Tom Brady's "Waterloo?" As everyone knows, Brady
is a perfect 10-0 in his playoff career and New England's 10
consecutive postseason wins is an NFL record. Denver joined
Seattle at 8-0 at home this year and surely be confident as the
Broncos beat the Pats back in Week 6 here, 28-20. The game was
not as close as the final score, as the Broncos led 21-3 at the
half and 28-3 midway through the third quarter.
Brady's playoff numbers are quite impressive, as he owns a
completion percentage of 61.9 percent, has thrown for an average
of 215.2 YPG and thrown for 14 TDs with just three
interceptions. In seven of his 10 playoff games, Brady has not
thrown an interception, including his last four!
Denver's QB Jake Plummer has made four previous playoff starts.
He won his first back in 1998 when he led the Cardinals to a
20-7 win over the Cowboys in Dallas. However, he's lost his last
three, by scores of 41-21, 41-10 and 49-24. His last two playoff
games came with the Broncos in losses at Indianapolis to the
Colts.
The good news for both Plummer and Denver is, this game is at
home. Plummer has thrown just TWO interceptions (227 attempts)
in eight home games this year and Denver, which has lost all
three of its post-Elway playoff games (all on the road!),
finally gets a home game!