Football Preparation
You're going to be hearing a lot over the next two weeks about
preparation on the gridiron. Let's call it "Preparation G", as
in Game Day, because that's what it's all about. On the Riviera
radio contest last month, I gave out USC over UCLA, pointing out
that Trojan coach Pete Carroll was 11-0 straight up and 10-0-1
against the number when he has at least one extra week to
prepare. Well make it 12-0 SU, 11-0-1 ATS after USC flattened
UCLA 66-19.
Good coaches don't use extra time just to rest players. The
entire coaching staff should be using that time watching film
and designing new wrinkles to throw at the opposition. Carroll
and Patriots coach Bill Belichick are two of the best at it.
This is something to keep an eye on with all the bowl games
taking place. Coaching staffs have a month to prepare a unique
game plan for their opponent. Of course, some coaches don't have
the talent or insight to do it well.
Boston College coach Tom O'Brien has a reputation of being
highly organized and disciplined because of his military
background. He's also a good coach, and it's no surprise that
his Eagles have now won 6 straight bowl games after beating
Boise this week. It was also interesting that O'Brien credited
an embarrassing mishap by one of the bowl hosts during a
pre-bowl banquet speech for firing his team up (a lame joke
about how no one in Boston or Boise could pronounce BC team
captain Mathias Kiwanuka's name). "We go to a banquet that turns
into a pep rally. I ought to thank the mayor and the people of
Boise for getting this team ready to play," O'Brien said after
the game. Seemingly innocuous details like that can play a role
in motivation, as well.
When the NFL playoffs start, four teams are going to have bye
weeks: The Colts, Broncos, Bears and Seahawks. Take a look at
how those coaches have faired the last two seasons using the bye
week during the regular season. Seattle coach Mike Holmgren's
team came out after this year's bye week and flattened Arizona,
33-19, as 5-point favorite. However, also note Holmgren's
Seahawks are 1-3 SU/ATS the last four years after a bye.
Belichick is an excellent example of a coach making adjustments
each week and at halftime. In the second half of this season,
the Patriots have tweaked game plans a lot. They went with an
aggressive passing offense against Tampa Bay, then the next week
admitted they wanted to establish the run Monday night against
the Jets, which they did as Tom Brady had his lowest passing
total of the season. It's more difficult for opposing teams to
prepare when a team makes changes all the time.
How about the new kid on the block, Chicago's second-year coach
Lovie Smith? The Bears lost 20-10 at Cleveland after their bye,
and 13-10 to the Redskins after the 2004 bye (0-2 SU/ATS). The
Broncos under Mike Shanahan are 4-1 SU/ATS after the bye the
last five years. Know your coaching staffs carefully over the
next few weeks, because the most deadly teams are the ones with
talent, versatility AND creative coaching staffs.