The Playoff Picture
As the divisional leaders expand their lead, the playoff picture
gets clearer. But just what is that playoff picture? Sure, you
can look at the standings and get a vague idea of who will be in
the playoffs. Indianapolis is a lock, New England's in a weak
division, as is Seattle. But what about the other teams? The
teams that won't win the division? Who could sneak into the
playoffs?
Today we're looking at teams that aren't in playoff contention
right now, but could appear in that wild-card slot in the future.
First, let's eliminate the teams that are obviously going to
make the playoffs. For these teams, it's essentially a guarantee.
Indianapolis Colts (10-0) - they have a 3 game lead in their
division, haven't been beaten, and only need 4 wins in their
last six games to clinch home-field advantage, never mind just a
playoff spot (barring the Broncos running the table of course).
Seattle Seahawks (8-2) - they need one more win and a St. Louis
loss, and then they've won their division. Well the St. Louis
loss might not come for two or three weeks, Seattle is going to
make the playoffs.
New England Patriots (6-4) - they're in what very well could be
the weakest division in football besides the NFC North. They
have a two game lead over their nearest competitor (Buffalo
Bills), and they still have to play Buffalo, the weak New York
Jets, and Miami. Kansas City and Tampa Bay could cause a
problem, but the Patriots should make the playoffs.
Those teams have pretty much etched their name in the playoff
bracket. A case could be made for the Denver Broncos, but
they're in a very good division, so it's unlikely.
Now let's eliminate the teams that have no shot at making the
playoffs, or the shot is so unlikely they may as well be done.
Miami Dolphins (3-7) New York Jets (2-8) Cleveland Browns (4-6)
Baltimore Ravens (3-7) Houston Texans (1-9) Tennessee Titans
(2-8) Oakland Raiders (4-6) Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) Green Bay
Packers (2-8) New Orleans Saints (2-8) St. Louis Rams (4-6)
Arizona Cardinals (3-7) San Francisco 49ers (2-8)
None of those teams will make the playoffs.
Now let's look conference by conference at the teams vying for
those playoff spots.
AFC
The AFC is an extremely competitive conference, and as such, a
difficult one to predict. To get a better look at the playoff
picture, first you pick the divisional winners, and then move
onto the wild card.
AFC East - New England Patriots (6-4) No team is going to beat
the Patriots for the divisional title, so that's one playoff
spot.
AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3), Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)
Pittsburgh's schedule isn't that friendly - they still have to
play Indianapolis (at the RCA Dome), Cincinnati and Chicago.
Their last three games are against the Vikings, the Browns and
the Lions, and all three of those should be wins.
Cincinnati's schedule is slightly better. The only winning teams
they have left are the Steelers and the Chiefs, and the Chiefs
are in the last week of the season, when Kansas City's season
might already be over.
Divisional Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts (10-0) Jacksonville won't be able
to catch the Colts, so they're fighting for that last wild-card
spot.
AFC West - Denver Broncos (8-2) It's very unlikely that either
San Diego or Kansas City will catch the Broncos, leaving them
with the division title, and the Chargers and Chiefs fighting
for that wild-card spot.
Wild Card:
Cincinnati, Jacksonville, San Diego, and Kansas City are all
left fighting for the last wild-card spot. Cincinnati has a
fairly easy schedule, and should finish the season at 11-5 or
12-4.
The Jaguars schedule is softer than most pillows - they play
Arizona, Cleveland, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Houston, and
Tennessee. Indianapolis should be the only team that beats them,
giving them a 12-4, maybe 11-5 record.
San Diego does not have a nice schedule. They have Washington,
Oakland, Miami, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Denver. Miami is
the only game that jumps out as an easy win, and that might not
be so easy. They'd have to run the table to make the playoffs,
and that's not going to happen. They're out of the playoffs.
That leaves Kansas City. If you thought San Diego's schedule was
hard, you haven't seen anything yet. The Chiefs get to play New
England, Denver, Dallas, New York Giants, San Diego and
Cincinnati. Every game they play is against a playoff caliber
team. They're out of the playoffs.
Here's how the AFC playoffs look, barring a small miracle:
Home Field Advantage: Indianapolis Colts 1st Round Bye: Denver
Broncos Divisional Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers Divisional
Winner: New England Patriots Wild Card: Cincinnati Bengals Wild
Card: Jacksonville Jaguars
Now onto the NFC.
NFC
First, the divisional leaders:
NFC North - Chicago Bears (7-3), Minnesota Vikings (5-5) The
Vikings could catch the Bears, but it's unlikely. However, the
schedule is in the Vikings favor. Their last six games:
Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and
Chicago. They could conceivably win 4 or 5 of their last six.
Chicago on the other hand has Tampa Bay, Green Bay (twice),
Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Minnesota. It'll be tough to beat Tampa
Bay, Pittsburgh, or Atlanta. They should beat both Green Bay and
Minnesota.
Division Winner: Chicago Bears (10-6)
NFC East - New York Giants (7-3), Dallas Cowboys (7-3) The
Giants schedule isn't doing them any favors. They have Seattle,
Dallas, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Washington and Oakland.
They'll be hard pressed to win all of them, but they should win
4, putting them at 11-5.
Dallas doesn't have an easy schedule either, playing Denver, New
York Giants, Kansas City, Washington, Carolina, and St. Louis.
They'll beat St. Louis, and probably Washington, but probably
only win 2 of the other four, putting them at 11-5.
Division Winner: New York Giants (11-5) - due to a win over the
Cowboys
NFC South - Carolina Panthers (7-3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3),
Atlanta Falcons (6-4) This division is wide open for the taking.
All three have very good teams, but one of them won't make the
playoffs.
The Panthers have to play Buffalo, Atlanta (twice), Tampa Bay,
New Orleans and Dallas. They'll have a tough time beating a
desperate Falcons team twice, and Dallas may pose some problems.
They should finish at around 11-5.
Tampa Bay has to play Chicago, New Orleans (twice), Carolina,
New England, and Atlanta. They've already beat Atlanta - in
Atlanta, and could do it again at home. They should be able to
walk over New Orleans both times, but New England and Carolina
will give them some problems. They should go either 3-3 or 4-2
down the stretch, finishing at 11-5 or 10-6.
The Falcons have Detroit, Carolina (twice), New Orleans, Chicago
and Tampa Bay left. They won't beat Carolina twice, but they
should be able to get wins over Detroit and New Orleans. That
might be the only wins they get, finishing 10-6 or 9-7.
Divisional Winner: Carolina Panthers (11-5)
NFC West - Seattle Seahawks (8-2) The Seahawks will win this
division hands down.
Wild Card
That leaves the two wild card spots for Tampa Bay, Atlanta,
Dallas, and Minnesota to fight over.
Minnesota already lost to both Tampa Bay and Atlanta, so if they
finished tied with either team they'll be bypassed. Result -
Minnesota out of the playoffs.
Dallas has one heck of a schedule to go through, and won't
finish any better than 11-5, and could very easily fall to 10-6.
However, they should be able to grab the wild card spot, as
either Tampa Bay or Atlanta will fall behind them.
That leaves the Bucs and the Falcons for the last wild card
spot. The Buccaneers are a game ahead, have a softer schedule,
and have already beat the Falcons - in Atlanta. It will be
extremely difficult for the Falcons to catch them, especially
with two games against the Panthers. That gives Tampa Bay the
last wild card spot.
Here's the NFC Playoff picture:
Home Field Advantage: Seattle Seahawks 1st Round Bye: Carolina
Panthers Divisional Winner: Chicago Bears Divisional Winner: New
York Giants Wild Card: Dallas Cowboys Wild Card: Tampa Bay
Buccaneers