There Is No Such Thing As The Gambling Olympics!
I often become bewildered when I hear of people bragging,
because they have high strike rates and/or high
profit-on-turnover figures (POT). You know the 'my strike rate
on the Soccer is 73%' or 'my POT on the gallops is 90%'. Yes,
OK, congratulations. Give yourself a pat on the back; you are
making money. Well, actually, if your strike rate on the Soccer
was 73%, this certainly does not guarantee that you are showing
a profit. After all, the goal is to back plenty of winners,
isn't it? Well, yes and no. Is the goal to simply make money, or
is it to make as much money as we can, given our current
resources (time, starting bank, knowledge, etc.)? I realize that
it sounds like I am being a little greedy, but come on, admit
it, we all want great, big, fat, consistent profits from our
betting, don't we? I truly believe, that many punters think,
that this punting game is a competition, where plaques,
certificates and smiley faces are awarded to those with the best
win strike rates and profit on turnover figures. Yes, before you
wipe your writing pad out to type me a letter of disgust at my
arrogance, I admit that I am being a little hard-lined on this
one. I mean, really, WHO CARES if you have a POT of 30%, 60% or
even more? WHO CARES how many winning teams you backed, or how
many horses you backed, which were first past the post? It seems
to me, that many punters seem to turn a blind eye to one and
only real measure of how well you performed . . . How Much Money
Did You Make? Maybe I am the odd one out, but every time I hear
somebody spruiking, that they make an excessive POT of say 20%
or more, the first thought that pops into my head is certainly
not, 'Gee, that bloke really must know what he is doing, what a
legend!', but more along the lines of; How Much Money COULD He
Have Made? If you achieve high POT figures, you are telling me
three things: 1. You have had, maybe, a couple of dozen bets at
most, 2. You are way too selective with your selections, but
most importantly, 3. You are not making as much money as you
could be. Whenever I try to explain this to a punter down at the
pub, they think I am totally insane. "What Do You Bloody Mean
That I Could Be Doing Better? You Tell Me How Many Other Punters
Can Achieve 90% POT?" Generally, that is what I hear, when I
open my mouth about this subject. Look, missing a good bet is as
bad as making a bad bet. There is little excuse for either. We
all do both, but hopefully we don't make that same mistakes
twice. For those who disagree, I ask the following: Tell me why
I should turn my back on a positive expectation bet, regardless
of the return? Maybe I should not make the bet, because I may
damage my strike rate, or may lower my POT, and as a result,
won't sound as good when I brag to my mates. RUBBISH! There is
no such thing as the gambling Olympics; you are not going to get
an award for having the best POT figures or strike rates. I
shall repeat this once more. The Aim Of The Game Is To MAKE
MONEY. If you are achieving an average return on each bet of
more than 20% or 30%, I believe you need to rework your
approach, and do a little work to get that POT back down a
little by making the smaller positive expectation bets. Yes,
bring your POT down! How many good bets do you think you are
missing, if you wait all year, and make only 12 bets, but you
have 80% POT? You are making money on those 12 bets only. OK,
fair enough, you may make those bets quite large in relation to
your bankroll, but bear in mind, you may be able to make two,
three, ten or even more times the amount you are making now by
taking those smaller edges. The article . . .'The difference
between your edge and your expectation' follows on from this
concept. Reading this one article may make $1,000's of dollars
of difference to your bottom line over the course of a year.
Remember, it is not how many winners you back, but how much
money you make. Leave the bragging and high turnover figures to
the 'heroes'