Uk Horse Racing -Backing Favorites
I have researched some statistics that will give you more chance
of finding that winning horse racing bet, or more importantly
avoiding a losing one. I have tried to look at some more unusual
angles, that people may not be so aware of. I have used data
from 1986 to 2002 : 1. The sex of a horse makes a difference
when carrying a penalty. Colts and geldings have a far superior
record to fillies and mares.
Colts / geldings when carrying a penalty - 1523 wins from 7672
runners. Strike rate 19.9% for a small loss on investment of
3.8%.
Fillies / mares when carrying a penalty - 510 wins from 2981
runners. Strike rate 17.1% for a much bigger loss on investment
of 16.8%.
2. Horses blinkered for the first time are known to be poor
investments. However, these investments get worse the older the
horse.
2 year olds blinkered for the first time - 213 wins from 3468
runners. Strike rate 6.1% for a loss of 44.6%.
5 year olds or older blinkered for the first time - 54 wins from
1356 runners. Strike rate 4.0% for a loss of 54.8%.
3. Races with no last time out winners are less competitive than
those with 5 or more last time out winners.
This fact looks logical, but do people take this into account
when betting?
Backing the favourite in a race with no last time out winners
gave the following results - Strike rate 29.1% for a loss of
only 8.2%.
Backing the favourite in a race with 5 or more last time out
winners gave the following results - Strike rat 21.5% for a loss
of over 17%.
4. Horses that are forecast favourites do considerably better if
they actually start as favourite.
Horses that are forecast favourite and are favourite at the